Friday, October 17, 2014

 

Hozier - Take Me To Church

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Sunday, October 12, 2014

 

The bull market is over: the short term

The only question is which bull market we are correcting.  The smallest is the bull market which began in October of 2011 at S&P 500 1074.   The Spus nearly doubled from that level so a small correction would be 10% and that is 1924 which we took out on Friday so, yes, the correction could be over.  I don't think it is.

On September 15th I mentioned the important low that was made in August of 1904.  It was important because it hit a up trend line that had defined the bull market that began in Oct. 2011.  Of course, we have broken that trend line but I am sure we will break through 1904 on Monday because the futures market has already done it.  In fact, the futures market broke through on Friday afternoon.  1904 is critical support which is why it was difficult to break.  I think professionals saw this and realized a lot of people will sell on Monday and take the market down on the open.  They thought to get ahead of this selling and sold in the thinly traded after hours market.  I assume they will buy some time on Monday when downward momentum wanes.

This market is topping.  What that means is expect volatility to increase.  You can also expect money to move wildly from one asset class to another as pros try and anticipate what the public is going to do to shelter their money from risky, as yet to be defined, to safe assets.  What you must remember is that the reason asset markets have gotten this high is because the investing public feels a need to have a return on their money, a percent per year, because that is what they are used to getting.  This process will be over when they stop thinking in terms of returns and start thinking of just keeping their money.  Cash is the only safe haven but it returns nothing and, most likely, erodes when there is inflation.  So the psychology is we must earn a return in order to just stay even.  That is how people think during inflation.  This is deflation. 

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Friday, October 10, 2014

 

Big Data - "Dangerous (feat. Joywave)"

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Friday, October 03, 2014

 

The Griswolds "Beware the Dog"


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Monday, September 29, 2014

 

Traders: Millions By The Minute

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Friday, September 26, 2014

 

Middle Class Rut "Busy Bein' Born"

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Wednesday, September 24, 2014

 

S&P 500 1904

That's still the important level to watch.  That breaks and the 2+ year bull market is over.  Another level to watch is 1978, the low of last week which I thought would hold for awhile.  The move off 1904 was impulsive (strong) and the correction afterwards that ended at 1978 was, well, a correction meandering sideways.  So the strong move off 1978 gave a pretty clear signal that prices were likely to move higher.

There are a lot of reasons to believe this market is weakening but the most important indicator, price, hasn't given any sign that the up trend is about to end.  It just keeps moving higher in fits and starts teasing us with potential breaking points but always, at least since 2012, pulling back from the brink.  Yawn.  Wake me up when we break 1904 and then I can get excited.*











*I am poised to let the Crash Alerts fly.

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