Wednesday, September 15, 2004

 

Kerry Losing Lead Over Bush In Illinois

According to Ch 2's (cbs2chicago.com/topstories/local_story_259190721.html) newscast tonight. I'm very skeptical about it. I wish it were true.

Surprisingly, I have found many closet Bush supporters among several lifelong Democrats I know. And like the rest of the country, nobody here seems enthusiastic about Kerry. Lots of people despise them both. I always thought the election would be much closer in IL than the polls have thus far suggested, though lately it has seemed as if Keyes' rediculious candidacy made a Kerry runaway possible. But I'm guessing this poll is an abberation.

All evidence points to Bush gaining ground on Kerry in important states and among key demographic groups nationwide. He is now a clear favorite. On both IEM and intrade, Bush contracts have increased sharply in value in the last week. But Bush.IL is up ever so slightly. It is currently 11.5/12., offering about 8 to 1 for a Bush win. This seems about right. Maybe I'll buy one - if I'm in a gambling mood.

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