Friday, October 01, 2004


Post debate?

Hey Guys,
I missed the debate last night; Disney's "Kim Possible" took precedence on the family TV. I've been reading up on the post debate analysis in Kerry Spot and on Powerline and here's what I'm hearing:

Kerry looked very good, presented himself well, didn't look creepy, spoke strongly

Bush wasn't as strong as he could have been, he could have made better points against Kerry but didn't hit them during the debate. ( although today he finally came up with a zinger against Kerry saying his misspeaking regarding Iraq war is not as bad as Bush's mis-leading into war. Bush said today that it isn't Kerry's misspeaking that was the problem, it was his voting that's questionable. Good one George, but a day late.)

Kerry's positions STILL are not clear even though he continues to insist that his position on Iraq has been consistent.

It seems that Kerry continues to issue self contradictory points, even during a single debate, but it's not clear that Joe Six-Pack watching this thing would have picked up on this.

So my own impressions from these analyses are that the Republicans are disappointed that Bush didn't put it away last night. The dems are pretending to be excited, Kerry's performance could have strongly energized his base but I think the initial post-debate euphoria is fading for the dems. They are beginning to see that Kerry's substance was week even though his style was much better than anyone really expected.

How's this going to play to Peoria? Hard to say. Does the average undecided guy know about or care about JFKerry's flip-flops? Does such a voter appreciate the sophistication of JFKerry's 'nuanced' opinions? Also, Kerry made absurd but confident claims about having been consistent on Iraq. Does the average guy believe this or does he believe the Bush ad's depicting Kerry as a flip-flopper on Iraq?

The blogs are claiming that Bush appeared decisive and resolute. If 'undecided' felt that way then I would think such an impression is important for voters concerned about the war. I really don't think anyone other than partisan dems takes Kerry seriously when he claims to have better plans on Iraq. Those claims just ain't gonna play in Peoria.

Also, a major electoral dynamic this year is the women's vote swinging toward the GOP. A decisive and resolute demeaner will help with the "security mom" vote also. A Powerline guy is writing that he's getting lot's of pro-Bush feedback from women.


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