Thursday, October 05, 2006
What happens when Musharraf gets killed?
It didn’t sound like something Armitage would say. And, according to several Pakistani officials who were there, it wasn’t.
Pretty bold of them to undermine Musharraf this way. But with bombs going off near his house and rockets being found near places he’s due to speak, the price of undermining him may be at an all-time low. And dropping.
Ever get the feeling that the wheels are coming off?
First, I did not believe that Richard Armitage would say that we would bomb Pakistan back to the stone age. I thought he might have initimated that. You know, "..with us or against us." I think Musharraf probably felt that way and he certainly needed something dramatic to sell the jihadist sympathizers in his gov't of the idea of helping the US in the war on terror. "Do you want them to nuke us?" At this point, the jihadists must know this is an empty threat.
Back to the question. Musharraf might have more lives than a cat but the constant attempts on his life show that he does not have enough power to keep a lid on the Jihadists in Pakistan and when they do get him we will not be able to pretend that Pakistan is an ally. You know what, I think that will be a good day.
Musharraf provides cover to the diplo-weenies. They can say, "We must not press Pakistan to hard and put our guy in jeopardy." Actually, if the Jihadists were smart they would keep Musharraf around as a shield against drastic American action. It seems to me that they have free reign in most of the country right now and the US is loathe to 'destabilize' the situation for fear of losing Musharraf. The truth is we don't get that much from having him around because he is weak and he seems more interested in living than in confronting Jihadists.
We know the Jihadists are not stupid. But they are fanatical. So there is a good chance Musharraf will be toast. What happens then? Probably another puppet but if it is a Jihadist, or even a Jihadist sympathizer, then things will get very interesting. Remember, India was a hair's breadth from going to war over the bombing attempt on their parliamentarians. Maybe then we will stop pretending that Pakistan is an ally and really get tough with them. Or, much more likely, India will do it for us.