Tuesday, November 07, 2006

 

Tradesports election markets post

Just the Tradesports.com markets.

2.23pm

GOP Senate hold-- 71.2 - 73.4 House hold-- 16.2 - 17

Dem seats over 19.5-- 65.1 - 71.4
over 24.5-- 42.0 - 46.2

4.33 pm

GOP Senate hold-- 69.5 - 71.0 House hold-- 14.4 - 15.0

Dem seats over 19.5-- 70.1 - 75.0
over 24.5-- 39.3 - 48.5

It looks like it is coalescing around a loss of between 20 to 24 seats for the Republicans. The Senate holding solid for the Republicans.

John O adds:

I'm still a bit skeptical Democrats will do this well. Like I told you and Bill O I've been getting around 8/1 on the proposition that Democrats will win between 5 and 14 seats. I still think this is an excellent bet. I would place the odds of a Republican House at somewhere between 2 and 3 to 1; as such this is where I've committed some of my election day dollars.

I also took small election day flyers on GOP victories in NJ (17/1), MI (20/1) and VA (2/1). I think those are good bets even if they are likely losers. Especially Allen. The only other Senate race I had a position in was Steele in MD @ 6/1. I committed the balance of my account on Steele at just worse than 4/1 earlier today. I rate Steele as a 3/2 dog, though I have a hunch he's going to win.

6.15 pm

GOP Senate hold-- 51.1 - 55.0 House hold-- 9.2 - 9.6

Dem seats over 19.5-- 61.7 - 80.0 Last 84.4
over 24.5-- 46.0 - 60.0 Last 56.5

Markets are wide on the number of seats so I added the last trade. If you think the Republicans are going to pull out a victory pyrrhic victory and hold the house then now is the time to bet it.

6.37 pm

Someone is bidding 9.0 for 100 contracts on the Dems win 44.5 House seats. That is a optimistic and would seem to be a bid that needs to get hit. George Allen is trading down, offered at 40. Webb traded at 70.0 at some point, offered there now. Update 7.00 pm: GOP trade below 20.0 and Dem control trade above 80.0 in Virginia. With 23% of the precincts in Webb has lead by less than 1%. OMG!

7.25 pm

GOP Senate hold-- 60.2 - 62.5 House hold-- 5.2 - 6.0

Dem seats over 19.5-- 61.7 - 89.5 Last 84.4
over 24.5-- 41.2 - 56.8 Last 56.8

Breathing into paper bag.) Ok, I am calm. We are going to lose the house but whether we lose 25 or more seats is a coin flip. I am inclined to agree with John about the media influencing how we view the election during the election and that things will not be as bad as our worst fears. I am just a bit less optimistic. The House is gone so keeping the Senate is very important. We are not out of the woods but if people's opinions are skewed Democratic by the MSM then we are in a good position. BTW, Allen is polling 10% behind the Virginia marriage amendment. Consensus is Allen's dirty campaign after the Macaca incident really hurt him. Once again if Conservatives want to win they must run on the issues as Conservatives. How many time must Republicans relearn this lesson?

8.25 pm

GOP Senate hold-- 65.2 - 66.9 House hold-- 8.1 - 9.9

Dem seats over 19.5-- 62.0 - 79.2 Last 61.8
over 24.5-- 45.0 - 50.0 Last 50.0

Fox called NJ for Menendez and Maryland for Steele. Not surprises but it makes the lose of Ohio and PA. sting. Virginia has completely reversed. Now 58.0 bid for Allen. The jerk doesn't deserve it. The pre-poll closing bet on the Republicans continues to be the biggest no brainer in political gambling.

10.10 pm

CNN projects that the Democrats take the House. Fox is doing the math and pretty much says the same thing. I stopped watching MSNBC because Matthews and Olberdouche are insufferable.

GOP Senate hold-- 87.5 - 90.5 House hold-- 0.9 - 1.0

Dem seats over 19.5-- 96.0 - 96.5 Last 96.2
over 24.5-- 79.0 - 86.0 Last 86.0

Allen has a 86.0 bid. Lots on hand wringing on Fox and joyous celebration on CNN so we'll see. But I doubt the Dems can pick up both Missouri and Tennesee.

John O adds:

Soon after I posted above I realized that I was wrong. I wound up shorting a GOP House, dumping Steele (at a 70% loss) and the two longshots I'd taken a flyer on and buying more Allen at just better than even money. Trading on the VA Senate race has been wild (as I write this the bid/offer is 10.1/25.9 with Allen trailing by a few thousand in the vote count.) I was able to unload everything I bought at 90, which has salvaged my night. (Though I wish I'd waited to unload Steele. Not long after I sold my position the contract spiked back up to the average of where I'd bought it on the news that he had refused to concede.) Overall, I wound up with 80% of the money I started with. Not bad all things considered.

Also, I don't share Bill C's optimism on MO. Or on MT for that matter. It looks like the Democrats will control the Senate, too.

Bill C:

John, Allen claims that some numbers were transposed and that he is actually up by a few thousand. What a wild night. I heard this and checked Tradesports and assumed Allen was right because the market showed Allen winning. Then you post this and Allen is losing. Jeesh. Talk about whipsaw.

Final:

I didn't think I would end up the optimist this evening. : P

Damn. Losing the Senate sucks. Looks like Harriet Miers will get another shot.

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