Wednesday, August 08, 2007


The trend is definitely down

It is hard to label the beginning of this move. But it doesn't seem to matter where the one and two waves lie, we obviously have a very clear impulse wave down which means we have a change in trend. Now the three wave correction to the initial down wave appears to be complete. So allow me to push my crash alert back a few weeks when we take out Dow 13,000.

At this point the most optimistic outlook is another impulse wave down which would complete the correction above 12,000. Then the bull would be back. That possibility is remote in my view. Actually, an even more optimistic view would have the totaly correction finished at wave b but this seems unlikely. A move above Dow 13,800 would force me to rethink this.

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