Wednesday, April 16, 2008

 

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo warn 'delusional' investors on stocks

If you read only one bearish article this year, read this one.

Mr Anderson said investors should pay attention when the International Monetary Fund cuts its global growth forecast for 2008 three times in less than five months. The Fund has put the odds of a world recession at 25pc and predicted $945bn in losses from the credit debacle spread across banks, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurers.

"Even more alarming, the IMF estimates that only a quarter of these potential losses have been recognized," he said.

Of course stock prices are not cooperating. The Dow is up 183 as I type and all that matters is whether prices are rising or falling. Perhaps this another case of everyone who wants to sell has already done so. That is why I said the surprise risk is to the upside. No one is expecting good news. Still, while the market sits here we have to assume the bad news will filter into prices.

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