Friday, November 05, 2010

 

2012 and 2014 Senate races

In 2012 there will be 21 Democrats up for reelection in the U.S. Senate. In 2014 there will be 20. It is going to be a very tough time for them if the wave continues in the red states that wiped out the blue dog caucus keeps rolling. Given that the Republicans might need a 60 seat, filibuster proof majority to undue Obamacare I wanted to look forward and see what our chances will be of getting there.

I decided to make all of the states that McCain won in 2008 automatic wins for Republicans. This is going with the assumption the wave continues and that Republicans did exceedingly well in these states in 2010. Here they are:

Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Joe Manchin of West Virginia

So four for sure. We might as well call Joe Manchin a Republican when it comes to stopping Obama's agenda. (The Republicans only have two candidates in Obama 2008 states, Snowe of Maine and Brown of Massachusetts. Of those two I think Brown will have the toughest time.)

In 2014 there are 7 sure things:

Mark Begich of Alaska
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Mary Landrieu of LA.
Max Baucus of Montana
Kay Hagan of North Carolina
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Tim Johnson of South Dakota

2014 looks even better for Republican retention that 2012. The only Obama 2008 senator is Collins of Maine. The Maine sisters seem to be like Teflon.

So we have a total of twelve that should get the most attention. Incumbency could protect many of these senators but that is if the wave is not in effect. Also, now we know that challengers mean a lot. Besides these senators there are several states that have switched back to their historic Republican bias. With slightly more effort we could put these senators out:

2012

Bill Nelson of Florida
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Jim Webb of Virginia


2014

Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
Mark Warner of Virginia

Nothing is a sure thing but the lowest hanging fruit (12) plus the five from the formerly lost states give us 17 seats to add to the 47 or 48 we have now. Let's be pessimistic and say we get 9 of the 12 and 2 of the 5 leaving us one seat short. Then Herb Kohl could retire, Colorado might turn purple, and maybe Joe Lieberman could be persuaded to join the winning team. Given all of this there is a very good chance that a Republican president could convince the remaining red state Democrats to gut Obamacare.

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