Brain Droppings

It's very difficult to pin something like this down to a decade, or even a quarter or half century. I think there are people alive today who will live to see 200 -- I would like to be one of them. But when does that possibility begin to materialize? I think we might see life expectancy pass 100 by mid-century, and 100 years after that (2150) we'll have many individuals hitting the 200 mark, and good reason to believe that others will do so.

We wanted to know: If you could flip the telomerase switch on and restore telomeres in animals with entrenched age-related disease, what would happen? Would it slow down aging, stabilize it, or even reverse it?

It was akin to a Ponce de León [the Spanish explorer looking for the Fountain of Youth] effect. When we flipped the telomerase switch on and looked a month later, the brains had largely returned to normal.

Labels: everybody wants to live forever

Brutal.

Labels: funny

In an interview, Mr. Odelson said state law requires candidates to be residents of Chicago for one year prior to the election. Because the election is on Feb. 22, 2011, Mr. Emanuel needed to have access to his house as of Feb. 22, 2010. But he rented his house to Mr. Halpin five months before that. If Mr. Emanuel hadn't rented his home and maintained access to it—as Mr. Obama does with a house on Chicago's South Side—, "he would be golden," Mr. Odelson said.

It took over 30 years but Rush has been noticed lately, here is a 30 second AT&T ad:

...from 1978.

A lot of buzz has surrounded a recent post at retroist.com concerning an alleged major spoiler leak made two years before The Empire Strikes Back was released. The article, which we’ve identified as having appeared in the July 24, 1978 issue of The San Francisco Examiner, relays comments made by Dave Prowse (Darth Vader) claiming that the sequel would reveal that Darth Vader is in fact Luke’s father. Actually, it turns out, this little rumor had been dropped several months earlier in a fanzine called Little Shoppe of Horrors #4 (April 1978), which featured an exclusive (and lengthy) Prowse interview (reprint copies can be found on eBay, which is where we picked up ours thanks to a tip from SW bibliographer Bob Miller).

Labels: Spoiler, Star Wars

Not yet but we are on the way.





Now that you have watched the video go read the geeks slamming its quality.

Never mind:

Labels: CGI

Your side has chosen to engage in a low-level, asymmetric campaign for decades. Deceit, dishonesty and exploiting the mechanisms of state have been your weapons.

Unfortunately for you, you can no longer hide and your methods have been revealed and exposed for what they are. The Fabian operational concepts are only successful when they are hidden and cloaked in disingenuous “narrative”. Thousands now are aware of, and have read, Alinsky and his fellow socialists and have formulated a counter strategy.

Read the whole thing.

Whoever is the next mayor, and I am guessing that it is going to be Rahm, they are going to have a lot of problems from day one.

Labels: Chicago

Get short the Dow now, approx. 11,180, with a stop at 11, 380.

Labels: Stock, Trade

I have personally seen markets change when computers enter and cancel orders at high speed and through my contacts in the trading business I know that a lot of traders have left the business or had to alter their trading style because computers have made market making impossible for the individual. That loss of liquidity, I believe, will be disastrous for markets when volatility causes the HFT firms to unplug their machines. (see the Flash Crash)

Let's say that there is a buyer willing to buy 100,000 shares of BRCM with a limit price of $26.40. That is, the buyer will accept any price up to $26.40.

But the market at this particular moment in time is at $26.10, or thirty cents lower.

So the computers, having detected via their "flash orders" (which ought to be illegal) that there is a desire for Broadcom shares, start to issue tiny (typically 100 share lots) "immediate or cancel" orders - IOCs - to sell at $26.20. If that order is "eaten" the computer then issues an order at $26.25, then $26.30, then $26.35, then $26.40. When it tries $26.45 it gets no bite and the order is immediately canceled.

Now the flush of supply comes at, big coincidence, $26.39, and the claim is made that the market has become "more efficient."

Nonsense; there was no "real seller" at any of these prices! This pattern of offering was intended to do one and only one thing - manipulate the market by discovering what is supposed to be a hidden piece of information - the other side's limit price!

Labels: High Frequency Trading

The rising trend line which I first drew back on October 6th, updated here, has been broken. The last time I had a trend line that did this well in an up market was in July 2007 going into the high. The beautiful up trend lines showed up in U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Although I was confused about the wave count the breaking of the up trend was crystal clear. That is the signal to me that it is time to look for a place to get short. I was busy this morning taking my son to school and with making sure our furnace got fixed. (A cold wife and child take priority over the market.) So I missed a golden shorting opportunity. Perhaps you can see the three waves up that ended at 1 a.m. this morning.

No use crying over missed opportunities, there will be others. BTW, interest rates are rising and the sovereign debt crisis is getting interesting again.

We are now officially in a down trend and looking to be short. A falling stock market, and dollar, and rising interest rates usually are very bad news. The only mitigating factor is that interest rates are at a very low level. But inflation is supposed to be at a very low level.

The Fed's $600 billion program to buy Treasury bonds began late last week and is kicking into high gear this week, with the central bank buying up tens of billions of dollars of debt.

That should have driven prices up on those bonds and lowered their interest rates, or yields, which move opposite to the price. Instead, yields on almost every Treasury have been rising.

The trend is a potential problem for the economy and the Fed. Rates had fallen sharply for months in anticipation of a Fed buying program, and in a short time much of that effect has been lost, spelling an unwelcome rise in borrowing costs throughout the economy.

The real danger is that the Fed has lost control of the economy. They We are caught in a liquidity trap.

Labels: economics, stocks, Trade

I have read numerous comments on the difference between the Obama Presidency and the Obama campaign and the problems caused by the inconsistencies. Today Instapundit links another: "The Obama camp ran their campaign in such a way that they won the election by dooming the presidency. Of course there is nothing new in politicians promising more than they can deliver. But Obama committed this political sin on such a gargantuan scale that it ought to be named after him"

While I don't disagree with such an assessment I have to point out something I haven't seen mentioned. Obama had to run his campaign the way he did in order to obtain the Presidency. This is not a mistake. Obama is the athlete who took steroids not to excel but just to get in the game. There are no real regrets, he secured the Presidency, he won. The athlete can lament the side effects and comment in hindsight but if he didn't take the steroids he would be in the stands watching. The multi-year contract is guaranteed and the title pays dividends well beyond that.

I've met a few people over the years that have brought this show and this tune to mind.

From Bookworm Room and it is the best one yet in my opinion:

Where Lawrence O'Donnell is the sane one.

Labels: stupid

In 2012 there will be 21 Democrats up for reelection in the U.S. Senate. In 2014 there will be 20. It is going to be a very tough time for them if the wave continues in the red states that wiped out the blue dog caucus keeps rolling. Given that the Republicans might need a 60 seat, filibuster proof majority to undue Obamacare I wanted to look forward and see what our chances will be of getting there.

I decided to make all of the states that McCain won in 2008 automatic wins for Republicans. This is going with the assumption the wave continues and that Republicans did exceedingly well in these states in 2010. Here they are:

Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Joe Manchin of West Virginia

So four for sure. We might as well call Joe Manchin a Republican when it comes to stopping Obama's agenda. (The Republicans only have two candidates in Obama 2008 states, Snowe of Maine and Brown of Massachusetts. Of those two I think Brown will have the toughest time.)

In 2014 there are 7 sure things:

Mark Begich of Alaska
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Mary Landrieu of LA.
Max Baucus of Montana
Kay Hagan of North Carolina
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Tim Johnson of South Dakota

2014 looks even better for Republican retention that 2012. The only Obama 2008 senator is Collins of Maine. The Maine sisters seem to be like Teflon.

So we have a total of twelve that should get the most attention. Incumbency could protect many of these senators but that is if the wave is not in effect. Also, now we know that challengers mean a lot. Besides these senators there are several states that have switched back to their historic Republican bias. With slightly more effort we could put these senators out:

2012

Bill Nelson of Florida
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Jim Webb of Virginia


2014

Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
Mark Warner of Virginia

Nothing is a sure thing but the lowest hanging fruit (12) plus the five from the formerly lost states give us 17 seats to add to the 47 or 48 we have now. Let's be pessimistic and say we get 9 of the 12 and 2 of the 5 leaving us one seat short. Then Herb Kohl could retire, Colorado might turn purple, and maybe Joe Lieberman could be persuaded to join the winning team. Given all of this there is a very good chance that a Republican president could convince the remaining red state Democrats to gut Obamacare.

Labels: Obamacare, politics, Senate

I can't complain about all third parties. Green party candidate Bill Scheurer siphoned some votes from Melissa Bean in Illinois 8. Thanks Bill for your pointless run for office. However, there were a lot of low hanging Democrat fruit that the Libertarian and Constitution party did manage to keep in congress. And the Republican candidates they hurt were not the Charlie Crist/Lisa Murkowski type.

Arizona 7

Dem. R. Grijalva 62,459 Life time ACU rating: 2.86
Rep. R. McClung 58,376
Ind. Harley Meyer 3,659
Lib. George Keane 3,435

Good job Losertarian and Independent Meyer who is concerned about immigration. I am sure Grijalva are much more likely to serve your interests in congress.

Arizona 8

Dem. G. Giffords 120,175 Life time ACU rating: 14.67
Rep. Jesse Kelly 117,826
Losertarian Steven Stoltz 9,524

Texas 27

Rep. B. Farenthold 50,954
Dem. S. Ortiz 50,155 Life time ACU rating: 31.36
Lib. E.C. Mishou 5,371

Sure the Republican is winning but it wouldn't even be close without the Losertarian competition. Don't you want a congressman who will protect gun rights and limit government? Maybe his pro-life stance bothers you. Is that a good reason to help elect a liberal?

Indiana 2

Dem. J. Donnelly 91,330
Rep. J. Walorski 88,787
Lib. Mark Vogel 9,445

Hey Mark Vogel! Your website has a picture of Joe Donnelly with a line through his face. If you really wanted to get rid of him maybe you should have endorsed Walorski a week before the election when it was clear you had no chance.

New York 23

Dem. B. Owens 76,328
Rep. M. Doheny 72,612
Con. Doug Hoffman 9,573

Doug, Doug, Doug...next time do a better job of getting your name off the ballot. (Hoffman had endorsed Doheny but his name remained on the ballot and apparently over 9,000 people did not get the word.)

I understand there are times when the Republican is so bad that maybe a third party challenge makes sense. That's what primaries are for. Challenge them then and if you lose bow out after endorsing your fellow Republican and if you win demand they do the same. Face it. Libertarians, Conservatives, Constitutionalists, all have a home in the Republican party. We could have had these seats and many other races would not have been as close if the Libertarians and Constitution party members would realize that our electoral system is winner take all and that offering libertarian/conservative voters two choices just splits their votes benefiting a usually much more liberal/progressive candidate.

Labels: stupid

From Redstate, a letter to the Republicans from Mike Pence:

We must never compromise on our commitment to end this era of runaway federal spending, borrowing, bailouts, deficits and debt. We must never shrink from our stand for a strong national defense, fiscal responsibility, individual liberty, and traditional moral values. We must regularly remind ourselves that the American people showed us the door in 2006 and 2008 not because we compromised too little, but because we compromised too much on key principles.

I hope all Republicans in Congress agree.

I've had a few political debates with some friends carried out through comments on Facebook. One in particular ended with a post on July 8, 2009 with the following statement from a Democrat:

"Dude, stop only watching fox news....Feel free to have the last word, we'll keep wining elections."

This same person posted the following on Monday:

"Settle down GOP, there is no historic argument to say you'll get your landslide tomorrow. I predict a 30 to 40 gain. taking all bets from those who disagree."

Today's post: "Interesting"

I have yet to comment but I did think of an Instapundit link regarding a tweet:

"Can anyone site a single piece of poll data showing that the "elitism" charge has stuck to Obama or showing that's why Dems are in trouble?"

Caught taking down signs for Republican Joe Walsh and replacing them with Melissa Bean signs. The license plate was a Maryland Democratic Party Organizational Plate- 8 1526. Anyone have a relative in Maryland law enforcement?

Joe Walsh facebook page on the incident.

Labels: Election shenanigans

Good to see that Joe Walsh is ahead of Melissa Bean. I spent a couple of hours making GOTV phone calls for them on Friday and would have gone in today if I wasn't sick. I have only seen a few Melissa Bean signs and only one of those was on someones lawn versus hundreds of Walsh signs. Anecdotal but telling about Walsh's chances in this area. (I can't speak to Barrington/Palatine which I imagine would be a little more liberal.)

I imagine Walsh would have done better if he had money to spend on commercials. I am happy he has run a positive campaign and if will be a shame if he loses. He has gotten a lot of flack even from within his own party. Damn RINOs.

Over at Hot Air on the their Green Room commenter, Patrick Ishmael, has put together a convenient cheat sheet for the election that will help you track the wave as it moves across the country. The congressional elections sorted by earliest poll closing times along with the percentage chance of losing to the Republican. I believe it is the 134 most vulnerable Dems and they are ranked based on the percentage. Below are the races in which polls close at 7 pm. If this is going to be a wave election getting close to 70 seats you would expect Donnelly of IN. and Boucher of VA. to lose. I am guessing that how quickly some of these races are called should give us an indication of how the night will turn out.

Rank	District	Incumbent	% GOP to win	Polls close at:	Outcome:

.	16	GA-8	Jim Marshall	67%	7:00 PM		GA
.	53	GA-2	Sanford Bishop, Jr.	53%	7:00 PM		GA
.	112	GA-12	John Barrow	17%	7:00 PM		GA
.	6	IN-8	OPEN (Ellsworth)	80%	7:00 PM		IN
.	22	IN-9	Baron Hill	63%	7:00 PM		IN
.	69	IN-2	Joe Donnelly	43%	7:00 PM		IN
.	62	KY-6	Ben Chandler	50%	7:00 PM		KY
.	108	KY-3	John Yarmuth	20%	7:00 PM		KY
.	29	SC-5	John Spratt	63%	7:00 PM		SC
.	32	VA-2	Glenn Nye	63%	7:00 PM		VA
.	33	VA-5	Tom Perriello	63%	7:00 PM		VA
.	64	VA-9	Rick Boucher	50%	7:00 PM		VA
.	72	VA-11	Gerald Connolly	43% 7:00 PM VA