Friday, August 26, 2011

 

Kill the Quants Before They Kill Us

Before the housing market imploded there were many people who saw it coming yours truly being one of them. I suspect before all financial crises there were some who saw it coming and attempted to warn the public even though they were scorned, ignored, or treated as cranks. This time around you don't have any excuses. You've been warned.

Bring back the up tick rule.













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Thursday, August 18, 2011

 

Welcome to wave 3


The correction of wave 1 is likely over. Trading below 10,550, Dow futures, would be confirmation. We should be under 10,400 in less than a week. If the correction is still in force I will update this post by Monday when that should be apparent. You will notice that wave a and b are three waves and wave c is a 5 wave count that is pretty easy to see.

Wave 3 is usually the more violent of the waves being the point where people recognize that the trend has change and they try frantically to get out. I suspect that we will see a 1000+ point down day during this wave.

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So Many Flies At Burger King, Inspectors Wouldn’t Open Mouths

As WBBM Newsradio’s Keith Johnson reports, the Dumpster Task Force closed the Burger King at 1701 W. 95th St., on the eastern edge of the Beverly neighborhood, on Tuesday.

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Friday, August 12, 2011

 

Post Debate Thoughts

I didn't watch the entire debate last night but here are some thoughts regarding the current GOP field and the bid for the Presidency. Of course there may be some big changes between now and November 2012 but I think the election is mostly the Republican's to lose.

I'd say that Obama and the Democrats have a one or two point lead late in the 4th quarter but the Republicans have the ball, first and goal inside the ten yard line. Romney would be a field goal, a high percentage play for the win. I think he would beat Obama easily but he is not the conservative I would like to see in office.

Bachman is the most appealing to me but considering electability I'm afraid it would be like going for the touchdown on 4th down when the field goal is a much safer bet.

I though Pawlenty was going to eventually win the nomination some time ago but it certainly does not look like that now.

I don't know enough about Rick Perry yet but I get the feeling he might fit nicely between my assessments of Romney and Bachman. More like going for it on 4th but from inside the one, just inches away from a touchdown. A win is not just a win here, a touchdown is much better than a field goal in the long run.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

 

3 Wave pattern indicates that down trend is still in force


In this 10 minute chart of the mini-Dow chart shows a large 3 wave pattern which is a strong indicator of a continuation of lower prices. The range is from 10,401 to 11,263 so either we head down now or continue to consolidate in this range for awhile, we might be correcting the down trend that began with the 12,754 peak on 7/22, and head lower in a week. Either way this pattern has a high probability of lower prices at some point.

Trading corrections like this is tricky. The key is to know you are in one and to try and not get caught by false breakouts. For example, the move down today could be the low of the day making it part of the larger a-b-c-X-a-b-c. Fun right! If we go under the low of wave B, 10,550, I would take that as a resumption of the down trend. So hold onto your hats because no matter what there are going to be some big swings ahead.

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Monday, August 08, 2011

 

It might be time to buy a diesel car

Joule Unlimited

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Rule #1:


Sunday, August 07, 2011

 

Obama's birthday party games

10. Jenga: U.S. economy edition

9. Tic-Tax-Toe

8. (Getta) Clue

7. Monopoly: Spread the Wealth edition

6. Barrel of Soros Monkeys

5. Red Rover, Red Rover, Send Your Paycheck Right Over

4. Duck Duck Responsibility

3. Pin the Debt on the Children

2. Scavenger Hunt — for a job

1. Unfollow The Leader

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Thursday, August 04, 2011

 

Big Money Gets Into Landlord Game

The returns on real estate are much better than stocks and bonds right now so it is no surprise that this is happening.

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Best case scenario


The best view of the stock market is that we are completing a 5 wave sequence with the sharp move below the lower trendline that occurred today, 8-4-11. A move above 11,800 would greatly increase the possibility that we would see a new high above 13,000. The other scenario is that the down trend that began 7/22 is accelerating and that a crash is imminent. We will know what is going to happen very soon.




Dow futures

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