Saturday, December 29, 2012

 

Kyle Bass: Japan will never be able to pay back it's debt



Via Zero Hedge.

Japan defaulting will be a very big deal.

Friday, December 28, 2012

 

Alt-J - Fitzpleasure

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

 

CNBC's Mario Bartiromo rips Sen. Ben Cardin for not negotiating in good faith


Tuesday, December 25, 2012

 

An opinion on gun control by Larry Correia

If you are interested in learning more about why gun control is futile read this blog post.  And it's pretty funny.

I bought $600 worth of magazines for my competition pistol this morning. I’ve already got a shelf full for my rifles. Gun and magazine sales skyrocket every time a democrat politician starts to vulture in on a tragedy. I don’t know if many of you realize this, but Barack Obama is personally responsible for more gun sales, and especially first time gun purchases, than anyone in history. When I owned my gun store, we had a picture of him on the wall and a caption beneath it which said SALESMAN OF THE YEAR.

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Monday, December 24, 2012

 

Well I finally replaced my 15" monitor

I just happened to run across this post I made back in 2006.  I wonder if my 2006-self would be impressed that I had the patience to wait 6 years.  My 2012-self certainly is.

The Emerson 32", 720p LCD TV is a very nice monitor.

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Saturday, December 22, 2012

 

Mission Accomplished: Inflating the Housing Bubble

When all you have is ZIRP and Quantitative Easing the solution to every economic problem is another bubble.  Well congratulations Federal Reserve, you've started another bubble.


It didn’t look like a house anyone would pay $400,000 extra for. 
Several walls inside the gray townhouse with blue trim were streaked with water stains. The first floor was noticeably uneven. And termites had dined in front. 
The big pluses: It was 2,850 square feet, had off-street parking, and was in walking distance of Union Station and the bars and restaurants along H Street NE. Then there was the list price: $337,000. Similar houses in the neighborhood were going for closer to $500,000. 
Two weeks and 168 bids later, the house — in the 800 block of Fourth Street NE — was sold this month for $760,951 to an unidentified buyer.  [Emphasis added]

Holy crap.  168 bids.  When we tried to buy a house in Henderson in July and there were 23 bids I thought that was out of control.  168 bids is a feeding frenzy.  More than doubling the asking price is just nuts.  Again, this will not end well.  Don't people ever learn?  


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Friday, December 21, 2012

 

The Veils - Grey Lynn Park

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Wednesday, December 19, 2012

 

DAVID CHASE REFLECTS ON THE 'SOPRANOS' ENDING

I thought the episode itself might have been kind of a dud, but it wasn't. I was proud of it. I was satisfied that we'd done something. What I didn't understand was that the ending would be so talked-about that it would completely obliterate the rest of the episode that came before it. No one ever even saw it, talked about it, mentioned it or anything about it — and I think didn't even interpret it correctly because all they talked about was that ending. I did not know that would happen.
John O adds: This is the most thorough analysis of the show's conclusion I've seen.

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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

 

Japan is finished, Reaching the Keynesian end point

Isn't insomnia great?

Japan has a new gov't and they are about to do something very foolish.

If the new government has its way, there will be inflation—final straw for the young, whose wages won’t keep up with it. These are some of the consequences of a deficit-funded joyride by Japan Inc., the current generation of retirees and near-retirees, and other interest groups. [Emphasis added.]

So what happens to bond yields under an inflationary policy?  They go up.  Then what about Japan's massive (240% of GDP) debt.  They have to pay higher interest rates on that debt.  It won't take much inflation for debt payments to swamp tax revenue.  They can't inflate their way out of the debt. Their only choice is to grow their way out but they don't seem to have the political will to enact pro-growth policies.  (I'm guessing because it would require massive restructuring of their economy which would put a lot of people out of work for more than a few years.  One thing about unemployment, it focuses the mind on making yourself productive.)  

Please watch the 16 minute mark of this video for more on Japan's dilemma.  Actually watch the whole thing if you want to know the current state of the world economy.  Warning: it's depressing but you will come out of it appreciating the U.S. economic system.  

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Monday, December 17, 2012

 

A union rep walks into a bar next door to the factory...

...and is
about to order a drink to celebrate Obama’s victory when he sees a guy
close by wearing a Romney for President button and two beers in front
of him. He doesn't have to be an Einstein to know that this guy is a
Republican. So, he shouts over to the bartender so loudly that
everyone can hear, "Drinks for everyone in here, bartender, but not
for the Republican."

Soon after the drinks have been handed out, the Republican gives him a
big smile, waves at him, then says, "Thank you!" in an equally loud
voice. This infuriates the union rep.


The union rep once again loudly orders drinks for everyone except the
Republican. As before, this does not seem to bother the Republican. He
continues to smile, and again yells, "Thank you!"

The union man once again loudly orders drinks for everyone except the
Republican. As before, this does not seem to bother the Republican. He
continues to smile, and again yells, "Thank you!"


The union man asks the bartender, "What the hell is the matter with
that Republican? I've ordered three rounds of drinks for everyone in
the bar but him, and all the silly ass does is smile and thanks me. Is
he nuts?"


"Nope," replies the bartender. "He owns the place.

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Friday, December 14, 2012

 

Do or die for the bear

 When I last posted on the stock market there was a pattern developing which lead me to believe we might be heading into a bear market.  So far the market hasn't confirmed that analysis one way or another.  What we do have are some very good points on the chart from which we can say for sure that the bear has begun or the bull market is still in tact.  First the bull, above 13,531 and the bull market is still raging probably taking out the 2007 highs.  (See the top line of the second chart.)



                    Long term trend

The bear market won't begin until we take out 11,889.  (This corresponds to 12,400 from my last post.  The futures contract changed from September to December and that is why price levels changed.  I could explain it but you wouldn't care.)  I am looking for the big bear, the bear that will take us down to the March, 2009 lows or lower.  That is why I am saying 11,889 has to be taken out.  There is a support level there plus the trend line for the entire bull move from 2009.

What's interesting is that the move off the high stopped near support (12,356) and since then we have a pretty clear up trend (see second chart) which is testing its up trend line.  A full confirmation of the end of that trend will come if we trade below 12,905.  That is an excellent point to get short for the a trade at least down to the beginning of this short term trend at 12,445 starting on 11/14.  And then the possibility of catching a much bigger move if the long term trend is broken at 12,356 then 11,889.



The best part of this is that you can take less risk based on trading the smaller trend with an ever increasing chance of catching a truly huge move as prices move in your direction.  It's do or die because there is very little room for the market to move in either direction without confirming bull or bear.







                   Short term trend

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Death Cab for Cutie - You Are A Tourist

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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

 

This Just In: French Socialists Upset That France's Millionaires Aren't Hanging Around To Get Soaked By A 75% Tax Rate

The great thing about Socialism is watching Socialists not learn anything from experience.

England just had over 10,000 people that were earning over 1,000,000 pounds a year go 'poof'! and disappear from the tax rolls. Seems that if you jack your tax rate up from 40% of their income to 50%, these greedy rich bastards WILL take steps to shelter their money and alter their economic activity to lower the amount of their earnings that are subject to taxation.

This led to the hilarious sight of socialist politicians in England ponying up for what they thought would be a cool new $2.5 billion pounds in fresh tax revenue that they had already mentally spent....and then realizing that what they were in fact looking at was a $6.5 billion pound DECREASE from what they had just collected from this income group the year before.

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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

 

American Murder Mystery

If replacing housing projects with vouchers had achieved its main goal—infusing the poor with middle-class habits—then higher crime rates might be a price worth paying. But today, social scientists looking back on the whole grand experiment are apt to use words like baffling anddisappointing. A large federal-government study conducted over the past decade—a follow-up to the highly positive, highly publicized Gautreaux study of 1991—produced results that were “puzzling,” said Susan Popkin of the Urban Institute. In this study, volunteers were also moved into low-poverty neighborhoods, although they didn’t move nearly as far as the Gautreaux families. Women reported lower levels of obesity and depression. But they were no more likely to find jobs. The schools were not much better, and children were no more likely to stay in them. Girls were less likely to engage in risky behaviors, and they reported feeling more secure in their new neighborhoods. But boys were as likely to do drugs and act out, and more likely to get arrested for property crimes. The best Popkin can say is: “It has not lived up to its promise. It has not lifted people out of poverty, it has not made them self-sufficient, and it has left a lot of people behind.”

IOW, the problem is the as much the people, not the place that they live.  I suspect this might change over time.  If role models change then the marginal kid, the kid who might go on to lead a productive life, will see a better path in life than thuggery.  But I'm an optimist.  

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Friday, December 07, 2012

 

Macklemore - Thrift Shop Ft. Wanz

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Monday, December 03, 2012

 

What If NASA Could Figure Out the Math of a Workable Warp Drive?

But, as Dvorsky explains, White has recently come up with a new design for a warp drive, one that, theoretically, would require way, way less energy. "I suddenly realized," he told Dvorsky, "that if you made the thickness of the negative vacuum energy ring larger -- like shifting from a belt shape to a donut shape -- and oscillate the warp bubble, you can greatly reduce the energy required -- perhaps making the idea plausible." White believes that with his new design, warp drive could be achieved with the power of a mass that is even smaller than Voyager 1's. 

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Sunday, December 02, 2012

 

Saudi America


Earlier today we reported on the BofA/ML analyst who thinks it's possible that in the next 24 months, prices of West Texas Intermediate crude (the benchmark for US-borne oil) could fall to $50/barrel
The basic gist: Thanks to oil from shale, production is growing like bonkers, and it will overwhelm the infrastructure, leading to huge gluts and collapsing prices. 
There's a new phrase being bandied about and that's "Saudi America."

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