Monday, September 30, 2013

 

Druckenmiller Sees Crisis Worse Than 2008

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Saturday, September 28, 2013

 

Secrets of a former high speed trader

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Friday, September 27, 2013

 

POLIÇA - Dark Star (Live)

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Thursday, September 26, 2013

 

The Mystery Of $600 Million Traded In The Blink Of An Eye

If there are only computers left, what 'mispricings' will they discover?

"There is a role in [capital] markets for traders whose work is more speculative ... But when taken to its logical extremes, such as computers exploiting five millisecond advantages in the transfer of market-moving information, it's much less clear that society gains anything ... In the high-frequency trading business, billions of dollars are spent on high-speed lines, programming talent, and advanced computers by funds looking to capitalize on the smallest and most fleeting of mispricings. Those are computing resources and insanely intelligent people who could instead be put to work making the Internet run faster for everyone, or figuring out how to distribute electricity more efficiently, or really anything other than trying to figure out how to trade gold futures on the latest Fed announcement faster than the speed of light."

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Wednesday, September 25, 2013

 

A Hedge Fund Manager Who Doesn’t Mind a Losing Bet

  There is no shortage of market bears who take a grim view of the stock market. But Mr. Spitznagel has gained credibility in the investment world by predicting two market routs in the past decade, first in 2000 and then in 2008. Still, Mr. Spitznagel’s approach is unusual for a money manager. To invest with him, you have to believe in a philosophy that is grounded in the Austrian school of economics (which originated in the late 19th century in Vienna). The Austrian school does not like government to meddle with any part of the economy: when it does, adherents argue, market distortions abound, creating opportunities for investors who can see them. When those distortions are present, Austrian-school investors will position themselves to wait out any artificial effect on the market, ready to take advantage when prices readjust.

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In the 2008 financial crisis, Universa funds rose by as much as 115 percent as the S.& P. 500 plummeted. But that crisis is not over, Mr. Spitznagel said, and when the Federal Reserve stops its quantitative easing program of buying Treasuries, the market will have to readjust.
He is not alone in this view. Stanley Druckenmiller, a former strategist forGeorge Soros and founder of Duquesne Capital Management, recently told Bloomberg TV that when the Fed begins to taper back its quantitative easingprogram, he expects the market will go down.
But Mr. Spitznagel goes further. “There needs to be a purge,” he said. “If there isn’t a purge, you don’t get the healthy growth. Capitalism is about loss and it’s about growth.”

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Friday, September 20, 2013

 

Tame Impala - Elephant

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

 

Bernanke dumps bottle of vodka into the punch bowl

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stuck to its massive bond-buying strategy, citing softer U.S. growth in a move that stunned financial markets. 
By a 9-to-1 vote, the Fed chose to keep buying $85 billion a month in debt and said it would wait for more evidence of economic progress.

And the stock market and bond prices took off, the dollar tanked, and gold soared.  Good job Federal Reserve, you have made it impossible to get out of this bubble without another several months/years of rampant speculation which will ultimately lead to financial disaster.  But why should Ben Bernanke care?  He only has to survive the next few months.  I almost feel sorry for Janet Yellen.

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Saturday, September 14, 2013

 

Can the human regulators defeat the robot traders?

Right now algorithmic traders can externalize the costs of their errors because the exchanges have agreed to a policy of canceling errant trades. This reduces the risk and the cost of trading electronically, which is one reason electronic trading has grown so large.  
A simple rule that required all executed trades to stand would create a huge incentive to improve systems or restore the role of human judgment in trading.
The bane of my existence as a trader was the exchange cancelling trades made in error by one of the big boys.  Back in the 90s errors were just mainly clerks for large banks/brokerages making fat finger mistakes, hitting the wrong button, and moving the market quickly in one direction or the other.  As small traders, we took the other side of these trades and the rule is to find another product and hedge immediately.  So if the trade was cancelled we were left with the naked hedge which usually meant a substantial loss.

Of course, the exchange never was as accommodating to us little guys.   I think high frequency trading (HFT) has destroyed liquidity so much that exchanges are starting to take notice.  I doubt they will be quick enough or go far enough to prevent the next HFT lead market meltdown.  


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Friday, September 13, 2013

 

The Olms - On The Line

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Thursday, September 12, 2013

 

Researchers Link Obesity and the Body's Production of Fructose

Richard Johnson, MD, professor of medicine and chief of the division of renal diseases and hypertension at the School of Medicine and senior author of the paper, said: "Our studies provide an understanding for why high glycemic foods may increase the risk for obesity and insulin resistance. While some of the weight gain is driven by the caloric content and the effects of stimulating insulin, the ability of high glycemic foods to cause insulin resistance and fatty liver is due in part to the conversion of glucose to fructose inside the body.
"Ironically, our study shows that much of the risk from ingesting high glycemic foods is actually due to the generation of fructose, which is a low glycemic sugar. These studies challenge the dogma that fructose is safe and that it is simply the high glycemic carbohydrates that need to be restricted." [Emphasis added.]

IOW, Atkins was right.  

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

 

Please excuse me I have to go, Vladimir Putin is giving me President lessons


I created this quickmeme called Obama owns it.  This is my latest entry.

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Sunday, September 08, 2013

 

Bill Clinton Singing Blurred Lines by Robin Thicke

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Friday, September 06, 2013

 

Fitz And The Tantrums - Out Of My League

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Wednesday, September 04, 2013

 

RETROSPECTIVE: MASTER OF ORION 2

Master of Orion 2: Battle at Antares (MoO2:BaA) is a turn-based 4X game that managed to ship every sci-fi trope imaginable and somehow make them work. While some of the tropes associated with the gameplay actually originated with the title, most of the source material comes from elsewhere and is adapted only enough to dodge copyright claims. Star Wars, Star Trek, Battle Beyond the Stars, and a host of other sources give rise to a tech tree with everything from stellar converters to "doomstars" and every old-school alien concept you'd expect to run into. In many cases, this kitchen sink approach leads to a terrible abomination of a game. In MoO2's case, the result is delicious nostalgia that has aged remarkably well in the face of sequels, spiritual successors, and copycats using the same formula.

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