Friday, November 29, 2013

 

Exitmusic - "The Hours"

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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

 

FOX 32 News Special on the Economy: Chicago at the Tipping Point

Chicago News and Weather | FOX 32 News

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Saturday, November 23, 2013

 

America's anger epidemic: why?

Because we are heading for a trough in social mood which peaked around 2000. 

Dr. Sudeepta Varma, a psychiatrist, said it is not all a coincidence. Americans really are angrier now than they've ever been before.
 
A recent study from the USA Today found 60 percent of Americans report feeling angry or irritable. That is up from 50 percent when a similar poll was taken in 2011.
Social mood moves in cycles and we are in a down trend.  It explains the anger, it explains the booms and busts in the stock market over the past 13 years.  I expect that it will explain the major economic depression we will enter sometime in the next few years which will end with a bear market and the public feeling very angry.  And then we will have a fabulous boom. 

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Friday, November 22, 2013

 

Dolly Parton's "Jolene" - Slowed Down and Pitch Shifted

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Friday, November 15, 2013

 

Wolf People - Tiny Circle

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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

 

David Goldhill in conversation with Malcolm Gladwell

David Goldhill in conversation with Malcolm Gladwell from Ted Habte-Gabr on Vimeo.

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Friday, November 08, 2013

 

Gene Krupa-Big Noise From Winnetka

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Tuesday, November 05, 2013

 

Rich families hoarding cash: Citi

A new survey of family offices by Citi finds that the wealthy are cash heavy—meaning they may fall short of the investment returns they're expecting.

Wealthy families have about 39 percent of their assets in cash, according to a recent poll of more than 50 large family office representatives from 20 countries conducted by Citi Private Bank.

Stocks represented about 25 percent of portfolios on average. Bonds were about 17 percent of the asset mix and various classes of less liquid and alternative investments amounted to 19 percent.

Monday, November 04, 2013

 

You really can time the stock market

The CAPE has been popularized by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller, most notably in his book “Irrational Exuberance,” in which he predicted the bear market which began in 2000. It is popularly known as the Shiller PE ratio. It helped him just win the Nobel Prize for Economics. A summary of some of his research is available here.
This metric compares the current prices of stocks, not to this year’s or last year’s per-share earnings, but to the average per-share earnings of the past 10 years (adjusted for inflation). The argument for using this measure is that it smooths out short-term booms and slumps in profits. By this measure, the S&P 500 index has historically been on an average valuation of about 16 times cyclically-adjusted earnings. When share prices have fallen a long way below that level they have proven to be a really good deal over time: Investors who got in when stocks were cheap and hung on made super returns. On the other hand, when the CAPE or Shiller PE has been much above 16, the stock market has been a much less good deal. The subsequent returns have usually been mediocre or worse.
For example a recent analysis by Mebane Faber of Cambria Investments found that, from 1881 to 2011, if you had invested in the stock market when the CAPE was below 5 — a very rare occurrence — you would have earned a spectacular 22% a year over the next five years, even after accounting for inflation. You’d become rich.
If you had invested when the CAPE was between 5 and 10, you’d have earned on average 13% a year.
On the other hand, if you had invested when the CAPE was over 20 you would have earned just 5% a year, and if you had invested when it was over 25 you would have lost money, after accounting for inflation.

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Saturday, November 02, 2013

 

Isaac Asimov and Harlan Ellison on science fiction - 1982

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Friday, November 01, 2013

 

Grouplove - Ways to Go

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