Brain Droppings

Florence + The Machine- What The Water Gave Me

2012-01-27T07:55:00.000-06:00

George Romney and Saul Alinsky

2012-01-26T13:51:00.002-06:00

George Romney was a progressive Republican and he had some odd friends.

Mitt Romney’s father, liberal Republican George Romney, met with and endorsed infamous progressive activist Saul Alinsky...

...

This portrait would jibe with Mitt Romney’s image as a progressive Governor of Massachusetts, while suggesting any serious conversion to conservatism would not only entail a change in viewpoint but a rejection of Mitt’s Father, George — someone he has regularly mentioned as a major influence while campaigning. Taken as a whole, the new information could serve to fuel existing significant doubt amongst an already skeptical conservative base that Romney’s already vague conversion to conservatism is more one of electoral convenience than a principled decision.

How Mitt Lost South Carolina and National Review is losing conservatives

2012-01-22T15:51:00.000-06:00

A comment left by Teflon93 at NRO perfectly encapsulates the Mitt Romney cheer leading at that site and how they are alienating conservatives by pushing an obviously flawed candidate.

It's pretty sad when one has to read National Review the same way one reads The New York Times---with an eye more to what they're not telling conservatives rather than what they write.
It's been like that this whole campaign.
Ramesh Ponnuru denied being in the tank for Romney, but it was clear for weeks prior that he was, such that when he finally came out with his "It's Mitt" confession, it surprised very few commenters here.
Mark Krikorian savaged Newt Gingrich for his illegal alien amnesty stance---as one might expect---yet said not one word about Mitt Romney's position, which was even more radical and unwelcome than Gingrich's because he supported citizenship rather than mere residency status for illegals.
K-Lo, one of the formerly staunch pro-lifers in the NRO ranks, has had nothing to say about Romney's past embrace of abortion, his alleged Damascus conversion at the hands of a bioethicist (what, no Mormon elders are pro-life and could have put the point to him?), or his defense of Romneycare, including as it does provisions for taxpayer-funded abortions, a huge red flag to pro-life conservatives.
Rich Lowry continues to cover the race as "us (Mitt) vs them (every conservative in the race", infamously remarking on the emergence of a conservative frontrunner as "X Leads...for Now" and most recently remarking on SC as "a crushing loss" without feeling the need to specify he was speaking of Romney and not Santorum or Paul (for whom the loss was even more crushing). This followed his jeremiad against Gingrich wherein he claimed Romney, Huntsman (!) and the then-back-of-the-pack Santorum as the only acceptable GOP candidates. Indeed, he slammed Gingrich for conservative apostasy after conservative apostasy----while dutifully ignoring the numerous heresies of Romney, Huntsman, and even Santorum. And oh by the way he dismissed Bachmann and Perry out of hand. In radio interviews defending the editorial, especially on Charlotte talker Keith Larson's show, Lowry made it very clear the only concern he has is "electability" this cycle---while not making the case for Romney's electability over the rest of the pack at all, nor accounting for why we conservatives should elect a liberal and be happy about it.
If anything, the debate Twitter feeds were even more telling, as NROnik MittBots praised Mittens while mocking the conservatives in the field for every perceived misstep, or simply for not "looking presidential" enough.
It's all very clubby and high school.
But the real issue is not who the NR pundits support----it's their lack of any attempt to evaluate the field ideologically and to support the most conservative candidates in the race to any significant degree. When they aren't actively undermining the same, as they've done with every Not Romney frontrunner.
There are exceptions---Michael Walsh, Mark Levin, Andy McCarthy, and Mark Steyn have all criticized Romney and the other candidates on conservative grounds and proffered arguments from a principled conservative POV. We are welcome to disagree with their arguments---but at least there is something to disagree with, unlike Ponnuru's ex cathedra statement that Romney "will govern as a conservative." Really? What evidence of there is that? None was offered. To the extent that Ponnuru is still a conservative and not David Frum II, it may be wishful thinking at best.
Old NR hand and WFB nepher Brent Bozell said it best after the notorious "Against Gingrich" editorial: “National Review's endorsement of Romney & Huntsman proves only that this is no longer the magazine of William F. Buckley Jr. My uncle would be appalled."
Indeed.
I know I'm appalled---I cancelled an NR subscription I've held since 1991.

“Fit 2 Fat 2 Fit” – an intentional 70 pound weight gain

2012-01-22T12:44:00.000-06:00

It is hard to explain to someone who has been thin their entire life how hard it can be to lose weight. It is especially hard when you are doing the wrong thing like believing the calorie in/calorie out model; who knew that Lean Cuisine was making me fat.

I have to give a lot of credit to Drew Manning, a fitness instructor who deliberately gave up exercise and started to eat a high carb, high sugar diet and managed to gain 70 lbs. in 6 months. He has documented his journey at his blog and it is heartening to see someone get it. Losing weight is very difficult even when motivated.

Fired up by the pounding music, my adrenaline flared and I went through the set of 15. I was slightly caught off guard by a bit of the wobbly elbows during my first set, and was slightly more scared to dive into set two.After years of supporting clients through their first knee push-ups, I had an odd out of body experience realizing I’d need to employ the same approach. Slightly embarrassed, and more humbled, I completed set two on my knees. And I had to take mini-breaks to recover.As a personal trainer, I always wondered what new clientele thought as they started their uphill climb. Now I knew, because I was thinking the same thing. And over and over, the same thought went through it – “this is HARD!” Maybe I was too aggressive, thinking it would be like riding a bike, and I’d dive right in. Maybe I just underestimated how difficult things are when you try to exercise when you’re overweight.At the end of the workout, with arms actually made out of Jell-O, I sluggishly left the gym. No high fives. No blazing workout music. Just reality. This is going to be a lot of work.

Media Bias

2012-01-20T21:00:00.000-06:00

Via Instapundit: Mark Levin: Tell ABC’s Ross To ‘Find Out Who Obama’s Drug Pusher Was.

Newt Gingrich seems to have picked up on how the liberal media ran the Republican 2008 primaries, I heard him mention it in an interview today. More importantly though it should be pointed out that the media is biased, but not just liberal. Forget that. Conservatives in the media, like Fox news, maintain the appearance of 'fair and balanced' while liberals don't bother but rather act as if their views are simply the norm.

Levin is right. Conservatives in the media should attack in the same manner that the liberals attack. There is no fair and balanced. One side restrains itself and the other does not. As a network, Fox News has a reputation to protect so I understand editing for balanced reporting but individuals should take it upon themselves to provide information.

Can We Be Happy?

2012-01-20T08:45:00.000-06:00

Somebody That I Used to Know - Walk off the Earth

2012-01-20T04:50:00.000-06:00

"Why My Liberal Neighbors Aren’t Speaking To Me Anymore"

2012-01-18T11:05:00.000-06:00

I recently asked my neighbors’ little girl what she wanted to be when she grows up. She said she wanted to be President some day. Both of her parents, are liberal Democrats, were standing there, so I asked her, ‘If you were President what would be the first thing you would do?’

She replied, ‘I’d give food and houses to all the homeless people.’

Her parents beamed with pride.

’Wow…what a worthy goal.’ I told her, ‘But you don’t have to wait until you’re President to do that! You can come over to my house and mow the lawn, pull weeds, and sweep my yard, and I’ll pay you $50. Then I’ll take you over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give him the $50 to use toward food and a new house.‘

She thought that over for a few seconds, then she looked me straight in the eye and asked, ’ Why doesn’t the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the $50? ‘

I said, ‘Welcome to Conservatism.’

Her parents still aren’t speaking to me.

Gas Outlook: ‘Most Painful Year At Pump Ever’

2012-01-16T08:49:00.000-06:00

Gasoline prices could approach $5 a gallon by Memorial Day and stay a record levels for much of the summer, according to a forecast by GasBuddy.com.

Gas prices always spike in the summer, but the 2012 Gasbuddy.com Price Outlook predicts this summer will break records.

Popular Mechanics: The Top Gadgets of CES 2012: Editors' Choice Awards

2012-01-15T12:25:00.004-06:00

I like the 3D printer for $1700. The TOBII Gaze is pretty cool. It would keep the carpal tunnel syndrome at bay.

"The Trouble with Fructose: a Darwinian Perspective" by Robert Lustig, MD

2012-01-14T15:48:00.001-06:00

St. Vincent- Cruel

2012-01-13T11:48:00.000-06:00

CES 2012: HDTV

2012-01-11T12:40:00.005-06:00

Not that you can't go to Gizmodo, Engadget, DVice, etc. to find this stuff but I thought it would be nice to make it easier on you, and me, to find this stuff in the future.

-First is LG's OLED because it is the FUTURE. Very nice, can't wait to buy it in ~~2014~~ when my children are old enough not to destroy it. Of course, cost matters and LG seems to get it that people are not going to pay a lot more for OLED because the difference in picture is not worth that much. Baby steps is a good policy and I can wait until 2016.

-Speaking of the future, her is the LG's ultra high definition TV. At 84 inches it might be something they build since there is some demand for huge screens. I take that back, they will never build this unless it is OLED.

-One problem with all TVs is that we are still tethered to our remotes. In the future, which is next year, TVs will have Kinect-like abilities. TVs with apps and with built in functionality like Directv are nice but I own a PS3 and Xbox so I have plenty of ways to connect to content. I don't know if I want to pay a premium to have it built in. Of course, if I could just think about changing the channel that would be cool. Samsung smart interaction gesture controlled HDTV demo.

-Sony is doing something weird and like all things Sony you have to wonder if this is a gimmick or will Crystal LED TV be any better than OLED. They must think so because they seem to have gotten out of the OLED business. I do like Sony's 4k projector which seems a lot more practical. (Hands on.)

-Gizmodo explains the difference between $600 and $6000 TVs. (Hint: $5400.)

-Vizio integrates 3D, GoogleTV and has a 21:9 cinema display.

-Very weak holographic TV. Or very advanced 3D.

-Finally, this is not really about TV but it is about displays and place shifting. Onlive can stream Windows 7 to your Ipad. I assume it can do the same to an Android device. This would be a great way for me to work using a touchscreen without having to purchase a touchscreen monitor. (It would probably save me a lot of back strain, too.)

Update: Gizmodo: The future of TV is simple and good.

Engadget: The three Ds of CES TV.

Destroyer- Kaputt

2012-01-06T06:43:00.000-06:00

Football Is Better Than Soccer

2012-01-05T21:50:00.000-06:00

An Englishman Abandons the Beautiful Game for the NFL; Like a Chess Match—With Violence

We need to eat more lamb chops

2012-01-04T13:12:00.002-06:00

LG's 55-inch 'world's largest' OLED HDTV panel is official, coming to CES 2012

2012-01-02T15:51:00.002-06:00

Finally, Bill O's plasma gets some competition.

It will still be a few years before OLED becomes competitive with other displays. And I want to know how it holds up to kids.

Dum Dum Girls- Bedroom Eyes

2011-12-30T16:41:00.001-06:00

Does Powerline's Endorsement Matter?

2011-12-28T16:15:00.002-06:00

I don't think so. John O had pointed out something to me on Powerline months ago and I said I had stopped reading it. I just didn't find it original anymore. Today I removed Powerline from our blogroll, yeah that's gonna hurt, and replaced them with Dan Riehl's blog. I hope we directed literally ten's of our readership to him. (I hope his servers can handle the traffic.)

Frankly, I doubt few, if any, endorsements matter, let alone from a blog, mine included. But for Powerline to equate "establishment" candidate with "someone who won tough elections and governed successfully" is as nonsensical, as it is insulting to those of us who would prefer a less establishment-aligned candidate. But then, PL is an establishment blog. They seem to be as tone deaf as Mitt's campaign given their phrasing. Furthermore, if they really thought Pawlenty, who turned tail and ran before the corn was ripe in Iowa, was the guy, just how good might be their judgment in selecting a candidate? Given that, not very good if you ask me. Their second choice has been running since 2008 and can't get much beyond 20%. I can only imagine how weak Romney will prove to be in the general. Last night a PPP poll had Ron Paul beating Mitt among Republicans. That's a loser, in my opinion.

The future is so bright...

2011-12-28T11:03:00.000-06:00

...our energy future, that is, if we get a new president. (Via Hot Air.) Our recoverable reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal are so large that we could be energy independent. In fact, we could be a net energy exporter. Oh wait, we are already. It would be nice if it wasn't because of a weak economy, however.

OIL
Total Recoverable Resources: 1.79 trillion barrels.
-Enough oil to fuel every passenger car in the United States for 30 years
-Almost twice as much as the combined proved reserves of all OPEC nations
-More than six times the proved reserves of Saudi Arabia

NATURAL GAS
Total Recoverable Resources: 4.244 quadrillion cubic feet.
-Enough natural gas to provide the United States with electricity for 575 years at current
natural gas generation levels
-Enough natural gas to fuel homes heated by natural gas in the United States for 857 years
-More natural gas than the all of next five largest national proved reserves (more than
Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan)

COAL
Total Recoverable Resources: 497 billion short tons.
-Provide enough electricity for approximately 500 years at coal’s current level of
consumption for electricity generation
-More coal than any other country in the world
-More than the combined total of the top five non-North American countries’ reserves.
(Russia, China, Australia, India, and Ukraine)
-Almost three times as much coal as Russia, which has the world’s second largest reserves.

How they will attack Romney

2011-12-27T14:11:00.003-06:00

Diego adds: I still don't believe Romney will win the nomination, at first I thought it was going to be Pawlenty. I never thought Cain would be a serious contender and don't believe Gingrich will win. My guess is that if Perry does not gain (or regain) support then Huntsman or Santorum will. I don't know that much about Santorum but I think he has done a fine job at the debates.

Update, this is the first I have heard of this alleged bailout of Bain. If there is any truth to this it will really hurt Romney. Also, 7 reasons why Mitt Romney's electability is a myth:

Dwolla

2011-12-27T12:49:00.000-06:00

You know when you come up with a good idea and think about it for a year but do nothing and then someone comes up with something similar but much better idea. Ugh.

Touchpad gets Angry Birds Seasons and Rio

2011-12-26T15:14:00.003-06:00

Another indication that WebOS is not dead is the addition of two Angry Birds extensions. Oh great time waster/babysitter!

Merry Christmas!

2011-12-23T08:58:00.000-06:00

"We measure morality by what happens, not what is intended."

2011-12-20T11:13:00.000-06:00

What Really Happened Aboard Air France 447

2011-12-18T10:28:00.000-06:00

A very interesting dissection of this tragedy and how humans react under stress. Worth your time.

This slump won’t end until 2031

2011-12-14T23:52:00.003-06:00

Wow, someone is more pessimistic than me. Do you remember the good old days of 2005 when I first started blogging about the housing bubble? Now I am getting interested in real estate investing. Of course, I am always early. I just don't think this will last until 2031. 2016? Yes, much beyond that would require this teetering edifice of debt to hold up much longer than I think possible.

Liberals behind close doors

2011-12-14T08:17:00.000-06:00

Dear Prudence,
My brother, a Marine, recently left for his second deployment to Afghanistan. He is in a very dangerous area, and his unit has already lost a high number of members. I live in a politically liberal city, work in a liberal profession, attend a liberal graduate school, and have mostly liberal friends. (And I'm generally a liberal myself.) Only close friends and a few colleagues know that my brother is in Afghanistan. Most people I know oppose the war in Afghanistan and the military. People often say incredibly harsh things about deployed troops. One person implied that it wasn't necessarily a bad thing for soldiers to die and another said that almost all Marines were racist "war criminals" who delighted in killing children. I have to be around these people for school and work. I don't necessarily want to tell them about my brother. It's emotionally distressing to talk about his deployment—especially to unsympathetic people. Is there a graceful way to get them to shut up without having to bare my soul to them?

—A Hurt Sister

Dear Sister,
The ultimate irony is that these people don't have the insight to imagine what it would be like to live in a world in which there was no U.S. military. Let's just say it's unlikely they would be living in a lovely liberal enclave in which they would feel free to express whatever they disliked about the government. The people who are making these repugnant comments surely consider themselves the soul of sophisticated enlightenment, yet they chillingly shrug at the deaths of young Americans willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for their country, and malign our bravest men and women as baby killers. I understand you don't want to discuss your brother with them. Family members of deployed military have a hard enough job just getting through the day. But reluctant as you may be to engage with them, I think it is worth it for such self-righteous people to be brought up short. You don't have to allude to anything personal. If you were objecting to homophobic or anti-Semitic remarks, it wouldn't have to be because you had a gay brother or you were Jewish.

Maybe you can prepare yourself with some short responses so that you don't let these insults go unchallenged. For example: "Elected officials are the ones who make policy decisions, and the members of our armed forces carry them out. You don't have to agree with the policy to acknowledge the courage of our troops." "I'm sure you don't mean that you actually welcome the deaths of our men and women in uniform." "As with every organization, the military has some bad people. Fortunately, they are few, and those who commit an illegal act are arrested and prosecuted, just like civilians." Think of your remarks as conversation stoppers, not starters, and refuse to get drawn into a debate. If someone goes on to insist our troops are war criminals, reply that you'd prefer such sentiments be kept private. You can also authorize your colleagues to let people know that your brother is a Marine in Afghanistan. It would be good for some of these cosseted, smug blue-staters to realize that living among them are those whose dearest wish is that their beloved Marine comes home safe and sound.

What is a hate crime?

2011-12-12T10:30:00.000-06:00

It's a thought crime.

I hate broccoli. If I set up a website encouraging people to boycott farmers who grow broccoli and stores that sell broccoli and I was able to recruit a large following, Broccoli Sux would qualify as a hate group according to SPLC’s definition. The point is, the First Amendment still applies. Nobody is forcing people to participate in “conversion” or “reparative” therapy. Be gay, but don’t label groups who disapprove as ”hate groups” because they disagree with you. [Emphasis added.]

Now that's a cheap tablet

2011-12-11T11:59:00.000-06:00

Makes me wonder if the rush to get a Touchpad was worth it.

WebOS Lives! My Touchpad just became a lot more useful

2011-12-10T10:03:00.002-06:00

I am still waiting for this blogs resident engineer to approve the loading of android on the Touchpad but this is good to know. My son just wants to be able to play all versions of Angry Birds.

The only way out of the depression

2011-12-08T07:44:00.001-06:00

The energy industry is the only one with the potential to lift us out of the deflationary depression we are in today.

All markets are linked and what that means for you

2011-12-07T15:59:00.011-06:00

One of these charts did not make sense to me. I know that stock, bond, and commodity markets are tied together by Federal Reserve policy. That is, the Fed has been providing cheap liquidity and buying bad debt (Quantitative Easing) to keep interest rates low and to keep deflation at bay. It would make sense that stocks, gold, and oil would bottom on the same week, if not day, and that bonds would be topping if the Fed started buying more crap paper. The stock market likes it because the deflation is bad for stocks. The bond market, and commodity markets, don't like it because more dollars out their will be inflationary.

But why does it hurt the dollar? Well inflation would erode the dollar. D'uh. But then the dollar came back which is what puzzled me. But it isn't that puzzling because the dollar's value is against the value of other currencies and right now the dollar looks pretty good versus the euro.

Now that that mystery, in my mind, is solved let's look at the problem of the Fed fighting deflation with QE and easy money. Easy money is a problem when it causes inflation and erodes the value of your currency. That isn't happening thanks to the collapse of the European welfare state. Europe's collapse has bought us some time. How much time? I suspect very little but right now the stock market looks to be as good of a bet as any. At least technically, the fundamental side of the equation, however, is not so sanguine.

For two decades the Federal Reserve has bailed out stock markets, he argues. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan cut interests rates to near zero percent at the slightest indication of economic decline. And today, Chairman Ben Bernanke has followed the same course, stimulating the market so drastically in 2009 that after stocks crashed they took only three months to recover to a long-term upward trend.

"This pattern is unique," Grantham writes. And now that the Fed's balance sheet is stuffed full with debt, he adds, it may not come to aid during another stock downturn.

"GMO has looked at the 10 biggest bubbles of the pre-2000 era and has calculated that it typically takes 14 years to recover to the old trend," Grantham says. The important point of all this, he writes, is that almost none of today's professional investors have experienced anything like this because the Fed has come to the rescue.

"When one of these old-fashioned but typical declines occurs," he writes, "professional investors, conditioned by our more recent ephemeral bear markets, will have a permanent built-in expectation of an imminent recovery that will not come."

That sets up an environment that Grantham dubs, "No Market for Young Men." Grantham shows how long it may take U.S. stocks to recover if they crashed today.

Go to the link for the scary looking chart. I used to get very nervous reading stuff like this, not so much now. Not that I think his analysis is wrong, it isn't and the tight linkage between stocks, bonds, and commodities is excellent proof that all markets are being wagged by the Fed. What is different for me is that I know that fundamental analysis can take a long time to play out, even if it is right. IOW, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Until the up trend shows a clear break down I will remain nervously bullish.

P.S. In case you haven't figured it out being long gold is being long the stock market.

Renter Nation

2011-12-05T12:03:00.007-06:00

—The housing model of the future will be investors buying up existing housing stock and renting the houses or selling them to the occupant and financing the purchase themselves. Given the low returns on other investments of late, this is a lucrative new market for people who have cash.

This has been on my mind for awhile. Buying and renting homes for a long period of time to people who are cash poor. The numbers on this are very attractive if the housing market reaches 2005 levels by 2030.

The good news is that there are incredible loans available. Low, low interest rates and the price for houses is right. You can also save a bundle if you refinance your existing loan to a lower interest rate.

The key is having good credit and cheap financing. With the housing market as a load stone for the next decade the cheap financing is likely to stay longer than many expect.

Update: This is very interesting. Their just might be some real estate opportunities out west.

NFL Touchdown Celebrations

2011-11-30T14:29:00.004-06:00

It is not the NFL's biggest concern but it is something that gets out of hand. I have an idea for a rule that would curtail the touchdown dance and other nonsense without the need for an 'excessive celebration' penalty. A simple rule would require that the the point after TD attempt be made with the same ball used to score the TD. Also the play clock would begin as soon as it is determined that a TD was scored. There might be a delay for a review but it would force the players to focus on the game rather than a dance routine. The refs would be waiting for the players to give them the ball so they could spot it for the extra point and all the while the clock would be ticking. Ten or Twenty extra seconds could be allotted considering they have a decision to make, kick or go for two points, and personnel to change.

Racism and communism

2011-11-22T12:25:00.000-06:00

To be clear, I put communists in the same category as racists. People who irrationally hate other people. Racists hate based on skin color and communists hate based on class; both of their motivations are informed by failed pseudo-scientific pablum. And both have justified incredible violence against others whom have done nothing to them other than give offense for their existence.

Perspective

2011-11-22T10:58:00.002-06:00

The latest internet meme is to include the photo of the UC Davis police officer in various photos to show the horror of what was done to them. That gave me the idea for this demotivational poster.

I find your lack of looking for a job disturbing

2011-11-18T18:35:00.000-06:00

France is bacon.

2011-11-08T14:30:00.002-06:00

Cash for clunkers caused used car prices to rise- That which is unseen.

2011-11-07T13:19:00.005-06:00

Used car prices continue to rise, blurring value case for consumers

“Would you buy a used car from that guy?” was the old refrain. Now, that guy is desperate to buy your car.

Prices for used cars have been on an unprecedented upswing, and analysts do not foresee a leveling off during summer. The conditions are upsetting the long-held assumption that used cars are always better deals than new ones.

Poor and minorities hardest hit.

Stephanie Samuels went shopping for a used car but found prices for a late model car nearly as much as for new—and financing for the new car easier to obtain. "I was looking at buying a 2009 Ford Focus which was going to cost me about $16,000," Ms. Samuels said. "But for a couple grand more I could get a new Focus and a better interest rate. So now I am shopping new."

On Friday, wholesale auto auction house Manheim, a unit of Atlanta-based Cox Enterprises Inc., said its index hit 126.6 in April and adjusted wholesale prices of used vehicles rose 5% from a year ago. It's the highest level the index has reached since it started tracking prices in January 1995. The index sets its baseline of 100 at January 1995.

What can we learn from this episode of senseless destruction. That the parable of the broken window is true and that Keynesian stimulus is at best limited and at worst destructive.

In this case that which is seen is the government funds which went to buy the cars going into the hands of the sellers and then moving into the economy. That which is unseen is the rising prices of used cars which disproportionally affects the poor.

Now we seem to be absorbing this basic economics lesson.

So were the naysayers right? It seems so. A newly updated analysis from economists at Resources for the Future finds that the actual benefits of the program were pretty meager. The paper examined U.S. car sales using trends in Canada as a control group, and estimated that about 45 percent of cash-for-clunker vouchers went to consumers who would have bought new cars anyway. In the end, the program boosted U.S. vehicle sales by just 360,000 in July and August of 2009 and provided no stimulus thereafter. What’s more, the program increased average fuel economy in the United States by just 0.65 miles per gallon.
Now, there’s a case to be made that that’s better than nothing. For one, handing $3,500 vouchers to people who would’ve bought cars anyway still counts as stimulus. What’s more, as the RFF paper found, the program reduced overall U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions by between 9 million and 28.4 million tons. But even so, that implies that it cost between $91 and $288 per ton to get those reductions — a pretty lousy bargain as far as carbon policy goes. Even if the program did have some benefits, it’s hard to argue that it was an efficient way to dole out cash.

Watch out for China’s ‘freak’ economy

2011-10-26T09:24:00.002-05:00

Albert Edwards at SG Securities warned that China’s long-running investment boom has no precedent and is bound to burst. “China is a ‘freak’ economy,” he wrote. “To my knowledge no other economy in history has experienced such high investment/GDP ratios and seen so many sequential years of strong investment growth.” The Asian tigers in the 1990s? Japan? Nothing comes close, says Edwards.

That boom has helped carry the world economy through the troubles of the past five years. What happens if it, too, ends?
Don’t ask.

China was always going to end badly. Keeping their currency pegged to the dollar, artificially low, meant that all of the grow China has experienced was kept in country and the truth is that China never had that many domestic investments that made sense. If they had allowed the currency to float, and allowed citizens to invest outside of their country, then the real estate bubble would have been mitigated. In fact, it would have made China a much more wealthy society because they would have been able to buy the productive assets of other countries.

All of this is very bad because China was the economy that kept the credit bubbles effects from being fully felt here and in Europe. Now there is nothing to stop deflation.

From the Onion? Dude, Where's My Victim?

2011-10-25T11:43:00.004-05:00

It's funny enough but it is reported to be a genuine quote (via Tigerhawk) from an OWS protester in Toronto:

“It’s weird protesting on Bay Street. You get there at 9 a.m. and the rich bankers who you want to hurl insults at and change their worldview have been at work for two hours already. And then when it’s time to go, they’re still there. I guess that’s why they call them the one per cent. I mean, who wants to work those kinds of hours? That’s the power of greed.” – Jeremy, 38

"You can go ahead and clap," the president said. "Go ahead, nothing wrong with it."

2011-10-20T13:11:00.004-05:00

Asked about the muted response to the rare presidential visit, Lipscomb said emergency crews typically aren't demonstrative folk.

Term limits: A bipartisan solution to congressional corruption

2011-10-17T09:54:00.004-05:00

Email from my formerly liberal sister. I just don't know what happened to her. She is so damn sensible now I don't know how to deal with it:

I hope you all read it all the way through.

The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3 months & 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971... before computers, before e-mail, before cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to become the law of the land.. all because of public pressure.

I'm asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

Congressional Reform Act of 2011

1. Term Limits.

12 years only, one of the possible options below.

A. Two Six-year Senate terms
B. Six Two-year House terms
C. One Six-year Senate term and three Two-Year House terms

2. No Tenure / No Pension.

A Congressman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they are out of office.

3. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security.

All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people.

4. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.

5. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

6. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.

7. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

8. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12.

The American people did not make these contracts with Congressmen. Congressmen made all these contracts for themselves.

Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then it will only take three days for most people (in the U.S. ) to receive the message. Maybe it is time.

LET'S FIX CONGRESS!!!!! If you agree, pass it on. If not, just delete.
You are one of my 20+. Please keep it going.

The Rescue Plan

2011-10-14T12:32:00.004-05:00

Liberals always forget that it wasn't just the banks that were rescued.

Failure is not a problem for capitalism, in fact, it is a feature. Socialism is about propping up failing companies because of the fear of the unemployment it would cause. Unemployment is a sign that skills need to change. If you try and freeze the economy in amber with government bailouts you also freeze the unemployment rate because new businesses need the resources you are using for those bailouts to fund new business.

What if the Marines landed in ancient Rome?

2011-10-14T08:13:00.003-05:00

I read this on Reddit when it was being written and I thought that it was a very well written, clever story. I am glad that this creativity is being rewarded.

Diego adds: A rogue Time Lord tried this but not with our 21st century military. Several eras of human fighting capabilities were represented (including the Romans), not to see which would win but rather to pick from the survivors the fiercest individuals.

Anarchists for Big Government

2011-10-13T12:35:00.002-05:00

Non studuisse Latinae ..

2011-10-11T15:02:00.004-05:00

I do feel sorry for young people who are just getting out of school. I was graduated from my college in 1989 and I distinctly remember being told by recruiters that they weren't hiring but they showed up anyway as a courtesy to the school. Still, I knew better than to major in Classics which would have been a dead end. (I had four years of high school Latin that I enjoyed.) I thought a major in economics would be a little less frivolous. In retrospect, taking a year or two between high school and college to work would have been the smarter route. We would do young people a lot of good if we told them to think seriously about where they want to work and to try it out first before they go on to higher learning.

Then there are the people who want to blame everything on their own stupidity and/or poor choices. She should go with the drug dealing, IMHO.

ESPN ‘Parts Ways’ With Hank Williams Jr. – ‘Monday Night Football’ Theme No More

2011-10-06T14:41:00.001-05:00

Boycotting Monday Night Football would not be a big loss for me.

Update: John Stewart agrees that this is stupid.

Coming to a Theater Near You! (And DVD!)

2011-10-06T10:41:00.002-05:00

If you missed the Time Machine when it materialized recently you can see the next best thing. It will be available on DVD/Blue Ray soon and will be playing in theaters at the end of October.

Wave 3, it's now or never

2011-10-06T08:51:00.003-05:00

We have come to the point where we either rally hard or fall hard. I have no idea which because there are a bunch of mixed signals. Of course, it is the markets job to keep us guessing. If it was easy then...fill in your own cliche. You can look at my previous posts on this wave count to see my targets. A move above 11,291 would force me to look for a new wave count. The only thing that would surprise me is if we did not break out one way or the other by next week. So expect a lot more stomach churning volatility.

A Lasting Toll

2011-09-30T12:56:00.001-05:00

As the economy falters, families that lost homes and livelihoods in the Great Recession are increasingly confronting the possibility that they may never fully recover. Previous recessions have taken a lasting toll, reducing family earnings and children's odds of academic success.

The 7 Laws of Leanness

2011-09-28T12:24:00.002-05:00

I'm not sure if these laws apply to everyone but when I read them I found I have been following them most of my adult life. I don't believe there are laws that apply equally to everyone but some healthy habits don't hurt. I have one good, simple rule: KEEP MOVING. If you want to sit around all day watching football, like I do, then plan on using the bike or treadmill for 30+ minutes or go running. The result is that you earn your couch and pizza time. It is a good feeling.

Debbie Wasserman-Schultz: NY-9 is “a very difficult district for Democrats”

2011-09-14T13:21:00.003-05:00

Debbie Downer is spinning like a top on the event horizon.

Democratic party leaders insisted the loss wasn’t a harbinger of things to come. “It’s a very difficult district for Democrats,” said Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, noting its Democratic margins there tend to be the second lowest of all the districts in New York City.
House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), dismissed that idea.
“This is a very seriously Democrat district,” Mr. Boehner said. “This is not a district that Republicans have any right to believe we could win.”

In case you don't know Debbie Downer.

Wave 3 again

2011-09-09T10:55:00.001-05:00

I did this a couple of days ago and then got busy so I did not post it. It still works out with the short rally of the last two days being a wave 2 so acceleration down to begin shortly. that or the correction is still in effect. We will have to break through the support levels listed on the chart in, at least, the next 72 hours for the big wave 3 down to be in force.

Tea Party members attack police

2011-09-08T13:33:00.001-05:00

Ha, made you look.

Hundreds of Longshoremen stormed the Port of Longview early Thursday, overpowered and held security guards, damaged railroad cars, and dumped grain that is the center of a labor dispute, said Longview Police Chief Jim Duscha.
Six guards were held hostage for a couple of hours after 500 or more Longshoremen broke down gates about 4:30 a.m. and smashed windows in the guard shack, he said.

Kill the Quants Before They Kill Us

2011-08-26T16:31:00.002-05:00

Before the housing market imploded there were many people who saw it coming yours truly being one of them. I suspect before all financial crises there were some who saw it coming and attempted to warn the public even though they were scorned, ignored, or treated as cranks. This time around you don't have any excuses. You've been warned.

Bring back the up tick rule.

Welcome to wave 3

2011-08-18T12:25:00.003-05:00

The correction of wave 1 is likely over. Trading below 10,550, Dow futures, would be confirmation. We should be under 10,400 in less than a week. If the correction is still in force I will update this post by Monday when that should be apparent. You will notice that wave a and b are three waves and wave c is a 5 wave count that is pretty easy to see.

Wave 3 is usually the more violent of the waves being the point where people recognize that the trend has change and they try frantically to get out. I suspect that we will see a 1000+ point down day during this wave.

So Many Flies At Burger King, Inspectors Wouldn’t Open Mouths

2011-08-18T11:06:00.000-05:00

As WBBM Newsradio’s Keith Johnson reports, the Dumpster Task Force closed the Burger King at 1701 W. 95th St., on the eastern edge of the Beverly neighborhood, on Tuesday.

Post Debate Thoughts

2011-08-12T12:36:00.004-05:00

I didn't watch the entire debate last night but here are some thoughts regarding the current GOP field and the bid for the Presidency. Of course there may be some big changes between now and November 2012 but I think the election is mostly the Republican's to lose.

I'd say that Obama and the Democrats have a one or two point lead late in the 4th quarter but the Republicans have the ball, first and goal inside the ten yard line. Romney would be a field goal, a high percentage play for the win. I think he would beat Obama easily but he is not the conservative I would like to see in office.

Bachman is the most appealing to me but considering electability I'm afraid it would be like going for the touchdown on 4th down when the field goal is a much safer bet.

I though Pawlenty was going to eventually win the nomination some time ago but it certainly does not look like that now.

I don't know enough about Rick Perry yet but I get the feeling he might fit nicely between my assessments of Romney and Bachman. More like going for it on 4th but from inside the one, just inches away from a touchdown. A win is not just a win here, a touchdown is much better than a field goal in the long run.

3 Wave pattern indicates that down trend is still in force

2011-08-10T09:24:00.002-05:00

In this 10 minute chart of the mini-Dow chart shows a large 3 wave pattern which is a strong indicator of a continuation of lower prices. The range is from 10,401 to 11,263 so either we head down now or continue to consolidate in this range for awhile, we might be correcting the down trend that began with the 12,754 peak on 7/22, and head lower in a week. Either way this pattern has a high probability of lower prices at some point.

Trading corrections like this is tricky. The key is to know you are in one and to try and not get caught by false breakouts. For example, the move down today could be the low of the day making it part of the larger a-b-c-X-a-b-c. Fun right! If we go under the low of wave B, 10,550, I would take that as a resumption of the down trend. So hold onto your hats because no matter what there are going to be some big swings ahead.

It might be time to buy a diesel car

2011-08-08T12:06:00.000-05:00

Joule Unlimited

Rule #1:

2011-08-08T10:02:00.001-05:00

Obama's birthday party games

2011-08-07T11:48:00.000-05:00

10. Jenga: U.S. economy edition

9. Tic-Tax-Toe

8. (Getta) Clue

7. Monopoly: Spread the Wealth edition

6. Barrel of Soros Monkeys

5. Red Rover, Red Rover, Send Your Paycheck Right Over

4. Duck Duck Responsibility

3. Pin the Debt on the Children

2. Scavenger Hunt — for a job

1. Unfollow The Leader

Big Money Gets Into Landlord Game

2011-08-04T12:02:00.001-05:00

The returns on real estate are much better than stocks and bonds right now so it is no surprise that this is happening.

Best case scenario

2011-08-04T10:42:00.006-05:00

The best view of the stock market is that we are completing a 5 wave sequence with the sharp move below the lower trendline that occurred today, 8-4-11. A move above 11,800 would greatly increase the possibility that we would see a new high above 13,000. The other scenario is that the down trend that began 7/22 is accelerating and that a crash is imminent. We will know what is going to happen very soon.

Dow futures

CME Group calls tax situation 'untenable;' says it may exit state

2011-07-28T16:58:00.001-05:00

Yeah Gov. Quinn! We are thinking of moving to Nevada.

Is It Time To Trade Pricey Gold Bars For Cheap Houses?

2011-07-27T23:01:00.002-05:00

It is getting close. I don't think you can go wrong if you carefully dip your toe in investment real estate for the next five years. Long term trend take a...long time. So be prepared to hold it for a couple of decades. As I have argued before, real estate will be a real winner even if we slowly return back to the 2005-06 highs.

The dollar is approaching important lows

2011-07-26T22:23:00.006-05:00

S&P 500 looking toppy but hasn't rolled over. U.S. dollar rapidly approaching lows.

The U.S. dollar is falling near its 2008 low. Falling below 70.00 on the chart could precipitate a dollar crisis and you would see a bond and stock market sell off and a huge run up in commodities. I will keep an eye on the dollar and I imagine this will hit the MSM if we take out the May 4th low of 73.25. This might not pan out but it is worth watching.

"I'm just quitting."

2011-07-25T15:29:00.000-05:00

My name’s Ronnie Bryant, and I’m a mine operator…. I’ve been issued a [state] permit in the recent past for [waste water] discharge, and after standing in this room today listening to the comments being made by the people…. [pause] Nearly every day without fail — I have a different perspective — men stream to these [mining] operations looking for work in Walker County. They can’t pay their mortgage. They can’t pay their car note. They can’t feed their families. They don’t have health insurance. And as I stand here today, I just … you know … what’s the use? I got a permit to open up an underground coal mine that would employ probably 125 people. They’d be paid wages from $50,000 to $150,000 a year. We would consume probably $50 million to $60 million in consumables a year, putting more men to work. And my only idea today is to go home. What’s the use? I don’t know. I mean, I see these guys — I see them with tears in their eyes — looking for work. And if there’s so much opposition to these guys making a living, I feel like there’s no need in me putting out the effort to provide work for them. So as I stood against the wall here today, basically what I’ve decided is not to open the mine. I’m just quitting. Thank you.

Still Flying

2011-07-22T09:00:00.001-05:00

In lieu of flowers

2011-07-21T13:31:00.002-05:00

Rational Environmentalist

2011-07-18T11:08:00.005-05:00

Music is more enjoyable to listen to when you like the lyrics. For a long stretch I was in tune with most of what Neil Peart of Rush penned and Geddy Lee filtered (as Neil once said, many are submitted, not all are chosen). I have not been in tune with some of the more recent Rush releases but I do appreciate some of the thoughts Peart puts into the views he shares through lyrics and his other writings:

"In the Pacific Northwest, as in Canada’s British Columbia to the north, logging was a major industry, and thus a source of many jobs. That’s important, no question, and it is one threshold where I part company with organizations like Greenpeace. Speaking with one of their advocates once, I said I would find it hard to shut down any industry, even coal mining, when it would put so many blameless, hard-working people out of a job. The Greenpeace guy said he had no problem with bringing it all down, and he meant it, but . . . I’m a bleeding-heart libertarian.

In any case, it’s hard for me to get too judgmental about lumbering, because I like things made of wood.

Drums, for example.

Houses.

Books.

But I am glad we have those national parks, at least, to protect some of it for the future—and even for the present. Because I enjoy visiting them now, and in the West, they are often reachable on days off."

I think Peart is an interesting writer. He shares his traveling stories on his web site and has written four books.

Cheap Trick- Surrender a/Marriachi

2011-07-15T23:02:00.001-05:00

Bloodstained velvet, dirty lace...

2011-07-14T08:00:00.003-05:00

...Naked fear on every face.
See them bow their heads to die
as we would bow when they rode by...

Cuts in government spending will likely trigger economic collapse

2011-07-09T00:30:00.003-05:00

Congressional Republicans got the message. Raising taxes would be suicidal politically for them.

The fiscal path the country is on will take us to an unprecedented level of spending and taxation. Why should the Republicans want to facilitate this process any more? It is contrary to pretty much everything the party is supposed to stand for. If anything, the GOP earns a fair share of the blame for this impending disaster because the party didn't do anything about it between 2003 and 2007, when it had full control of the government and knew full well that, thanks to the baby boomers and out-of-control medical costs, our terribly outdated Medicare system was set to blow up the budget. At least now, Republicans are no longer a party to making it worse, by demanding -- at last! -- some fiscal restraint and some sensible reforms.

That means there is only one way to get control of debt-- spending cuts. And that will be a problem for the economy. You see, it has been government spending which has been propping up the economy, preventing deflations full force from being felt. (How's that for alliteration?)

Everything is very fluid, but the headlines in today’s Wall Street Journal suggest a deal on the order of $4 trillion in on the table. I assume it will be back-loaded, but it is a start. But assume that the first year sees real spending cuts of $200 billion. That is a reduction of 1.5% in GDP. It’s that pesky old equation I keep using:

GDP = C (total consumption) + I (Investments) + G (government Spending) + net exports

Now, the literature suggests that the effect on the economy from a reduction in G should be over within about 4 quarters, on average. But then we reduce “G” again the next year. Maybe not by as much overall, but at least by another $50-100 billion. This is going to put a real headwind in the face of economic growth for years, but we simply have to do it or we become Greece.

The economy will already be slowing down. A recession in 2012 is a real possibility if there is any type of shock coming from Europe, and what will happen there is anyone’s guess. I think most European leaders are basing their thinking more on hope than on reality. When Greece defaults there will be a domino effect; you can count on it. And you could actually see a banking crisis before we get actual sovereign defaults.

So any cuts in government spending along with the Federal Reserve ending it's monetizing our debt will hurt in the short term. Everyone in government knows this but they can't say it. Deflation was always going to win. Take a good look at Japan to see a country that tried to borrow its way out of deflation. It didn't work. It won't work here. We just have to take our medicine and that will mean at least a few more years of pain. Also, remember that the stock market rally since 2009 was entirely paid for with stimulus money that will be going away soon.

Joe Biden: not stimulating anything

2011-07-04T11:29:00.002-05:00

From my mother who lives in Boulder City:

Joe Biden came to town this weekend to speak at a union meeting, this is a big fourth celebration in Las Vegas, and his visit shut down for two days locale helicopter trips in the area to Grand Canyon etc., resulting in thousands of dollars and jobs lost.

Mumford & Sons - The Cave

2011-06-17T15:23:00.002-05:00

The Cave

Little Lion Man

Police Celebrate Seized Online Gambling Funds

2011-06-17T15:12:00.002-05:00

Apologies to the Americans who won’t be receiving the money they deposited via a fake business the government set up, but fear not as they’re going to be buying lots of shiny new police toys with your money. This is yet another way in which horrid police activity fuels itself (much more about that here). The police received monetary rewards for disrupting the lives of innocent people and are using that money to buy fancy new equipment which they will use to harass even more private American citizens engaged in activities that some bureaucrat finds distasteful.
The original article showed up on a popular online poker web forum and individuals from across the world began expressing their disapproval in the comments section. As one online commentator aptly described the situation: “This is disgusting. Their smug faces make me wanna puke.” Another wrote: “So they have taken money that belongs to American citizens. That’s stealing! We should inform the police, oh wait…”

(Via Amy Alkon.)

Also:
The Forfeiture Racket

According to a 1992 Cato Institute study examining the early results of the Comprehensive Crime Control Act, total federal forfeiture revenues increased by 1,500 percent between 1985 and 1991. The Justice Department’s forfeiture fund (which doesn’t include forfeitures from customs agents) jumped from $27 million in 1985 to $644 million in 1991; by 1996 it crossed the $1 billion line, and as of 2008 assets had increased to $3.1 billion. According to the government’s own data, less than 20 percent of federal seizures involved property whose owners were ever prosecuted. [Emphasis added.]

Drum Solo Week

2011-06-10T09:53:00.002-05:00

Come for the drum solo, stay for the Time Machine!

This is the rich or why unemployment isn't falling

2011-06-02T11:16:00.004-05:00

The man in the aisle seat is trying to tell me why he refuses to hire anybody. His business is successful, he says, as the 737 cruises smoothly eastward. Demand for his product is up. But he still won’t hire.

“Why not?”

“Because I don’t know how much it will cost,” he explains. “How can I hire new workers today, when I don’t know how much they will cost me tomorrow?”

He’s referring not to wages, but to regulation: He has no way of telling what new rules will go into effect when. His business, although it covers several states, operates on low margins. He can’t afford to take the chance of losing what little profit there is to the next round of regulatory changes. And so he’s hiring nobody until he has some certainty about cost.

...

My seat-mate seems to think that I’m missing the point. He’s not anti-government. He’s not anti-regulation. He just needs to know as he makes his plans that the rules aren’t going to change radically. Big businesses don’t face the same problem, he says. They have lots of customers to spread costs over. They have “installed base.”

For medium-sized firms like his, however, there is little wiggle room to absorb the costs of regulatory change. Because he possesses neither lobbyists nor clout, he says, Washington doesn’t care whether he hires more workers or closes up shop.

...

“Invisible,” he says. “I know there are things the government has to do. But they need to find a way to do them without people like me having to bump into a new regulation every time we turn a corner.” He reflects for a moment, then finds the analogy he seeks. “Government should act like my assistant, not my boss.”

Simple, straight-forward reason why our economy is moribund. This man is an example of the rich that the left so easily demonizes but for whom our economy is dependent. Without his efforts and desire to take risks nothing happens. The beauty of America is that there are people like this who are willing to take chances, work hard, and still suffer the opprobrium of fools.

(Via Instapundit.)

The Doctor is gonna bust a cap in yo ass

2011-06-01T14:50:00.000-05:00

Middle-aged men have 'hotness delusion syndrome'

2011-05-31T21:50:00.004-05:00

A drought of mid-40s single men, compared with single women of the same age, means they are fiercely pursued, inflating their opinion of their attractiveness.

Woohoo, this is great...oh yeah, I'm married.

BTW, this article proves the theory I had a few years back that the ratio of 35-40 year old men to 22-27 year old women would determine the dating market. This ratio is likely to at or near a trough because of the small Gen X generation followed by the kids of the baby boomers.

"Thank you, Illinois taxpayers, for my cushy life."

2011-05-28T13:36:00.002-05:00

After 34 years of teaching sociology at the University of Illinois at Chicago, I recently retired at age 64 at 80 percent of my pay for life. This calculation was based on a salary spiked by summer teaching, and since I no longer pay into the retirement fund, I now receive significantly more than when I "worked." But that's not all: There's a generous health insurance plan, a guaranteed 3 percent annual cost of living increase, and a few other perquisites. Having overinvested in my retirement annuity, I received a fat refund and--when it rains, it pours--another for unused sick leave. I was also offered the opportunity to teach as an emeritus for three years, receiving $8,000 per course, double the pay for adjuncts, which works out to over $200 an hour. Another going-away present was summer pay, one ninth of my salary, with no teaching obligation.
I haven't done the math but I suspect that, given a normal life span, these benefits nearly doubled my salary. And in Illinois these benefits are constitutionally guaranteed, up there with freedom of religion and speech.

Why do I put "worked" in quotation marks? Because my main task as a university professor was self-cultivation: reading and writing about topics that interested me. Maybe this counts as work. But here I am today--like many of my retired colleagues--doing pretty much what I have done since the day I began graduate school, albeit with less intensity.
...
What I describe above is not so exaggerated as one might think. It is, in fact, very much like what I experienced during my last year in graduate school, and doubtless much like what many other graduate students in the humanities have dealt with during the last three years after finishing their degrees: depression and anxiety at the prospect of not finding work, feelings of scholarly worthlessness, and, perhaps most pernicious of all, the ominous realization that now, Ph.D. in hand, you have become an obscure subaltern, fated to roam the university landscape from one adjunct appointment to another.
All this I had to find out for myself — no one at my home institution wanted to level with me about my chances, if they were even aware of them. My fervent hope is that in writing this I will spare next year’s Ph.D.s some of the suffering I have endured — suffering which, I believe I can claim with some confidence, I hardly deserved.
Just how bad is it? It used to be that graduate students in their final year, if they did not find a tenure-track position in the fall or winter before they graduated, at least were able to nail down a postdoc that would give them a decent salary and time to publish a few articles or a book. This system, as far as I can tell, has completely collapsed. For instance, my thesis director informed me in January — after the MLA convention, let’s bear in mind — that not a single institution was hiring A.B.D. in 2011.

You have to wonder how long the conditions for the first quoted professor can exist along side the second quoted grad student. And you have to wonder how long those students are going to keep protesting to keep public employee union benes when the young are the ones getting the shaft.

The sad thing is that it isn't just post docs that have been ripped off by the university system. It is every young man or woman who goes through the system designed to separate you from your parents money. (Please watch Crack Baby Athletic Association to fully understand that college athletics is slavery.)

Turning an investment idea into an investment

2011-05-27T12:44:00.003-05:00

There are three major asset classes in which people hold their money: stocks, bonds, and real estate. At any given time it makes sense to reevaluate your portfolio and move money from one to the other. (Most people's real estate exposer is their home so moving money out of the home would involve getting a home equity line and buying stocks or bonds. This exposes you to interest rate risk and might not make sense unless you expect rates to remain the same or fall within your investment horizon; say min. 5 years.) Stocks have had two very good years, real estate has had 5 very bad years. (Buy low, sell high.)

I think now is a good time to think about investment real estate. Low interest rates and a flat real estate market are great conditions for finding bargains. Properties are renting for more than the cost of mortgage, insurance, and taxes in some areas. Of course, it might be even better next year or the year after, but I do know one thing. In ten to twenty years prices will be back to 2005 levels which represents a 100% return on your money in most places. Do you think real estate prices in 2031 will be higher or lower than 2005 levels?

Now say you put $20k down on a property. Rent covers all the costs of ownership. What kind of return will you see in 20 years if prices go to 2005 levels? 12.2% Just put $200 in Current principal, zero additional, 20 years to grow, and 12.2 as the interest rate and you get approximately $2000. $2000 is the doubling of the current price of $1000 of which you put 20% down, hence, the $200 as current principal. The weakness of this analysis is that rent and taxes are variable. Also, property needs maintenance and that should be factored in. I think a real estate professional should be able to tell you approximately what you would spend maintaining a property. That said, you are counting on inflation returning and increasing rents and the price of the property.

So how do you take advantage of this without becoming a landlord? I thought I would take a look at apartment REITs. As you can see from the link this index of apartment REITs tracks the stock market pretty closely. Damn. That is not what I wanted to see. So how to invest in real estate without becoming a landlord? I have no idea. But I have a feeling if it were easy someone would have already thought of it.

Anybody have any ideas?

June is the White Sox best chance

2011-05-26T17:22:00.000-05:00

Right now the White Sox are 9 games out, second to last in the division, but hitting has picked up and pitching has held up much better. June represents our best chance at getting back in the hunt thanks to weak opponents and some changes in the line-up.

First the schedule, we start a ten game home stand with Detroit which swept us in May. They are the toughest opponents we'll see in June but they are division rivals and anything can happen. The Tigers have been that hot lately so it is time for payback. This series should set the tone for the rest of the month. Next are Seattle and Oakland and we have taken 2 of 3 from both on the road this year. I expect nothing less at home from teams at the bottom of their division. Next we go to Minnesota, this is a tough one because the Twins always play us tough no matter they are having an awful year. We lost a couple of close ones so if we are streaking at this point and our hitting is making a come back then theoretically we should have no problems.

Then we travel to Arizona to face a current 500 ball club. By the time we get their the dome will be closed and that will be good for our hitters. Beyond that I got nothing on the Diamond Backs. Then back home to meet the Cubs who will have nothing but minor league pitching by then. Get your brooms out. Keep them out for the Nationals. We finish June at Colorado, again I got no idea about that.

Of course the big news is that Peavy is back but it isn't the pitching that has been bad for the Sox. Moving Quentin to the third spot should have been done a month ago. I expect Dunn will start to heat up soon although he really isn't that much off his averages.

Hitting is contagious and so is winning. June is our best chance to catch up on both.

NASA video of wake up call to the Space Shuttle crew

2011-05-26T09:38:00.002-05:00

The shuttle crew comment at about the 1:17 mark:

Here is another version:

The reason why gas is more expensive than it needs to be

2011-05-22T13:45:00.000-05:00

All of these offshore sources of oil are off limits. We pay hundreds of billions of dollars every year to the worst people on the planet and we don't even try to use our own resources. We can't afford to not drill here and now.

Will there be a QE 3?

2011-05-20T14:00:00.000-05:00

Bernanke's all in gamble that QE2 would have been sufficient to restore the virtuous circle of the economy has failed with less than 2 months to go under the QE2 regime. As such, and with fiscal stimulus a dead end, the Fed has two choices: watch as the economy collapses in flames to a state far worse than its pre-QE1 outset, or do more of the same. That's all there is. The rest is irrelevant. And since the Fed will choose the latter option, the market would be wise to start pricing in precisely the same reaction as what happened following the Jackson Hole speech...although to the n^th degree.

QE 2 ends in June. Expect the commodity bubble to resume when the next round of quantitative easing is announced. Otherwise, it might be time to prepare for a depression.

Bond market at important juncture

2011-05-19T13:16:00.002-05:00

This is a chart of the 30 year treasury bond futures. A pattern has developed which indicates much lower prices and, therefore, higher interest rates. We are very early on this but the potential for much higher interest rates if this pans out is too important to ignore. As Drudge would say...developing...

When China's bubble bursts

2011-05-19T12:35:00.003-05:00

"A lot of people are willing to say China will slow down," he said. "The really scary thing is if you do the numbers and they cut back on construction it's not a slowdown, and they go negative real fast."

...

How then, can a pool of savers as large as America’s entire retired population expect to draw 5.5% on their investments, after inflation, for the next several decades? The reason these returns existed in the past was because we were experiencing debt fueled, unsustainable rates of rapid economic growth. Now that debt levels have reached their ceiling – even with rates at virtually zero, total debt is not increasing any more – growth must slow because less new cash is being loaned to borrowers and injected into the economy.

...

A rising stock market, low inflation expectations, and lots and lots of cheap credit for even the riskiest companies. What's not to like?

The main problem is that this is all an illusion. If it were truly possible to print one's way to prosperity, history would have already proven that to be possible, yet such efforts have always failed. The reason is simple enough: Money is not wealth; it is a commodity that we use as a temporary store of wealth. Real wealth is the products and services that are made possible by an initial balance of high-quality resources that can be transformed by human effort and ingenuity.

For some reason, however, this basic concept has managed to elude the high priests and priestesses of the money temples throughout time. Somehow it always seems compelling to give money printing a try, maybe because this time seems different. But it never is. And it's not different this time, either.

Two Down, (the) One to Go

2011-05-18T11:39:00.004-05:00

If you lived in Chicago in January 2009, this was your government. Federal, state & local.

Bill C: Not that its much better now.

College Conspiracy

2011-05-17T06:55:00.000-05:00

This is a theme Instapundit has been on for awhile.

Dirty Lakers

2011-05-16T13:24:00.003-05:00

Lowlights from game 4 Lakers in Dallas. Really disgusting lack of sportsmanship.

Diego adds: I'm not sorry to see the Lakers exit except for the fact that the Bulls can't begin another championship run by again beating L.A. Had the Lakers made the finals this year the Bulls could have beaten them twenty years to the day they won their first title, this time in Jackson's last game as a coach.

LSU crowd throws water balloons at would-be flag burner

2011-05-15T06:11:00.003-05:00

Notice the age of the crowd. (Via Hot Air.) Please go to Hot Air and see the interview with the LSU student body president.

In that USA Today article, and in ones like it in this newspaper, the New York Times and other outlets, a narrative has quickly congealed. Because of their youth, the thinking goes, millennials experienced 9/11 in a unique and uniquely transformative way. After the tragedy, they became more serious and civic-minded. But they also became more anxious and self-aware. More than anything, millennials couldn't shake the specter of Osama bin Laden.

...

Even data that support the media's theories stop well short of suggesting a millennial reboot. In 2000, for example, UCLA's Higher Education Research Institute reported that the number of freshmen who considered keeping up with political affairs to be "essential" or "very important" hit an election-year low: 28%. After 9/11, that number did bounce back — but only to 39% in 2008, well below the 60%-plus who answered affirmatively in 1966, the first year of the annual poll. [Emphasis added.]

Jack Sparrow (feat. Michael Bolton)

2011-05-14T15:27:00.000-05:00

In case you missed SNL which I assume is most of you.

Twenty Years Ago

2011-05-13T23:45:00.003-05:00

The Bones are still rolling but here are some echos from 1991:

All around this great big world, All the crap we had to take
Bombs and basement fallout shelters, All our lives at stake
The bloody revolution, All the warheads in its wake
All the fear and suffering, All a big mistake.
A hell of a price to pay for someone else's misguided ideology.

“10” Restaurant Financial Red Flags

2011-05-12T14:54:00.000-05:00

Or things I wish I knew 14 years ago.

"Go to hell, hippie, go to hell."

2011-05-11T23:35:00.000-05:00

"It's time that my generation stand up for what they believe in and exercise their freedom of speech and let people know that we are not OK with this," said Cody Wells, the student government association president. "I am angry that an individual would want to do this at a public higher education institution."

Housing crash is getting worse

2011-05-09T13:59:00.002-05:00

“Buy when there’s blood running in the street.” ~Philippe de Rothschild

Here in America we have “zombie homeowners.” Millions of them. According to Zillow, a record 16.3 million families are upside-down on their home loans. Sixteen million! And many are a long way upside-down. Their homes may never be worth as much as their mortgage. But they are hemorrhaging cash to pay the nut every month.

Recovery? What recovery? This looks a bit like a depression to me.

What does this mean?

All the misery makes me think of a great French general, Ferdinand Foch. He’s the one who defended Paris at the Battle of the Marne in World War I. During the darkest hour of the fighting, he is supposed to have looked around him and said:

“Hard pressed on my right. My center is yielding. Impossible to maneuver. Situation excellent — I attack!”

In other words, when it comes to distressed housing, I’m finding it hard not to be a contrarian bull.